Moody’s warns against rising debt

Both Moody’s and Fitch think government will fail to reach its debt-to-GDP ratio target of 45% by 2020/21.

13 September 2018 | Economics

Finance has not been especially good at forecasting deficits which does not instil much confidence in their expectations for reduced deficits going forward. – Eric van Zyl, Research Chief: IJG Securities

Jo-Maré Duddy – The international credit rating agency Moody’s expects government’s debt to continue rising and reach 50% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2020.

Moody’s latest report on Namibia, which has a junk credit rating with the agency, says Namibia's fiscal strength has weakened in recent years.

“Although government debt to GDP, at slightly more than 40% in the 2017/18 financial year, remains moderate relative to its regional peers, the pace of debt accumulation has been rapid in recent years,” Moody’s said.

Commenting on Moody’s opinion, IJG Securities research chief Eric van Zyl said the agency would not have mention the level of 50% of GDP had they not modelled the expected increase in public debt against the growth prospects for Namibia.

“Government continues to run large budget deficits and year after year the forecast for future periods sees the deficits for the outer MTEF [medium-term expenditure framework] years grow. In other words, finance has not been especially good at forecasting deficits which does not instil much confidence in their expectations for reduced deficits going forward,” Van Zyl said.

In his budget in March, finance minister projected total debt to reach more than N$99 billion in 2020/21 – up from an estimated N$83.7 billion the current fiscal year. According to his forecast, this would mean that debt will be 45% of GDP in 2020/21. Government’s own threshold is 35%.

In its report last month, Fitch Ratings, who also view Namibia’s credit rating as junk, projected that debt will reach 51% of GDP.

“The fiscal consolidation measures set forth by the government will not be sufficient to achieve the official goal of stabilising and eventually reducing public debt/GDP, in Fitch's view,” the report stated.

Releasing its latest Fixed Income and Economics Report last week, Simonis Storm (SS) said Fitch reaffirming Namibia’s junk status “did not come as a surprise as the fiscal consolidation measures are not sufficient to reduce public debt/GDP”.

“The macroeconomic environment has deteriorated, which will negatively affect tax collection. We do not see the above reverting in the near future,” SS said.

Growth

Van Zyl said larger deficits will lead to the use of larger amounts of debt to finance expenditure leading to a higher debt-to-GDP ratio than currently expected by ministry of finance, provided GDP growth materialises as expected.

Schlettwein’s budget growth forecast for this year is about 1.2%. Moody’s expects 0.9% and Fitch 0.6%.

Van Zyl said IJG does not see much in terms of growth drivers for the Namibian economy at present, and the threat of external shocks may derail growth expectations. “Should growth falter it would lead to a higher debt-to-GDP ratio than is expected,” he said.

Moody’s said moderate average real GDP growth and a high level of wealth are counterbalanced by growth volatility linked to commodity exports. “The economic recovery hinges on continuing growth in agriculture and mining, as well as gradually improving manufacturing, which should offset contraction in the construction sector,” it said.

Moody’s added that government is also susceptible to a further tightening of domestic funding conditions, which could be related to persistent fiscal slippages and would raise debt servicing costs.

SS pointed out that government debt has increased by 714% over the last decade. “We remain concerned over escalating debt levels given the skewed bond maturity profile at the short end. This will put pressure on government’s ability to repay debt,” the analysts said.

Outlook

Moody's said it could change its outlook for Namibia from negative to stable if the government were to “demonstrate commitment to fiscal consolidation that results in a deceleration of debt accumulation and an eventual decline in debt levels”.

It would likely downgrade the rating if fiscal consolidation were to fail to contain rapid public sector debt accumulation, Moody’s said.

“A sustained decline in foreign-currency reserves to below three months of import cover, increased funding pressure reflecting reduced market appetite for government securities, leading to a material increase in borrowing costs, or both, would also put downward pressure on the rating,” the agency said.

Similar News

 

Life compared to the Big Apple

3 hours ago | Economics

Jo-Maré Duddy – Consumers’ burden over the past 12 months has lightened somewhat compared to fellow shoppers elsewhere in Africa: Namibia is currently rated as...

Keeping up with the neighbours

3 hours ago | Economics

LuandaYou would need around US$2 535.97 in Windhoek to maintain the same standard of living that you can have with US$7 600 in Luanda, assuming...

Zim inflation almost doubles, stirring memories of economic chaos

3 hours ago | Economics

MacDonald Dzirutwe and Karin Strohecker - Prices of cooking oil and other basics soared in Zimbabwe as inflation nearly doubled in June, piling pressure on...

German investors turned off

3 hours ago | Economics

German Bundesrat (Federal Council) president Daniel Günther says German investors are ready to invest in Namibia, but policy uncertainties around wealth redistribution and property rights...

Refugees target global markets with luxury crafts

3 hours ago | Economics

Nita Bhalla - Rwandan refugee Anita Claudine knows the odds are stacked against her, but the fashion designer is unfazed in her ambition to one...

Filing tax returns online

1 day - 16 July 2019 | Economics

Elizabeth Joseph The Integrated Tax Administration System (ITAS) is a technology solution that allows taxpayers to file their returns online, which creates ease and comfort.A...

Economic panel targets N$14bn

1 week ago - 04 July 2019 | Economics

The high-level panel on the Namibian economy is scheduled to host an investment summit at the end of this month, which will ignite the process...

West African 'eco' dream gives economists nightmares

2 weeks ago - 03 July 2019 | Economics

Philippe Siuberski and Malick Rokhy - For decades it was a dream of West African finance ministers: ushering in a regional single currency to boost...

Not everybody a winner in record US expansion

2 weeks ago - 03 July 2019 | Economics

Trevor Hunnicutt - Last month Pink Floyd frontman David Gilmour sold his guitar collection for US$21.5 million, including one piece - his famed "Black Strat"...

Hunger for beef offers rewards, risks for pastoralists

2 weeks ago - 03 July 2019 | Economics

Célia Lebur - With over 200 million people and an emerging middle class, Nigeria is witnessing a boom in demand for meat that offers potential...

Latest News

Keeping up with the neighbours

3 hours ago | Economics

LuandaYou would need around US$2 535.97 in Windhoek to maintain the same standard of living that you can have with US$7 600 in Luanda, assuming...

88 schoolgirls fall pregnant in...

3 hours ago | Education

Eighty-eight learners, including two girls in Grade 7, fell pregnant in the Oshana Region during the first term of 2019. Oshana governor Elia Irimari...

Stop blaming Aawambo - Kapofi

3 hours ago | Government

Home affairs minister Frans Kapofi has cautioned against tribalism and pointed out that there is a growing perception that only the Aawambo are beneficiaries of...

Mom begs for mercy

3 hours ago | Justice

A mother of three minor children is asking the High Court to reduce her four-year prison sentence, or fine her instead, after she pleaded guilty...

Relevant IFRS themes: Anytime, anywhere

3 hours ago | Business

A good understanding of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) is crucial to the financial reporting process of IFRS reporters. Banks and Insurers in particular have...

Standard Bank faces strike vote

3 hours ago | Labour

ELVIRA HATTINGH Members of the Bank Workers Union of Namibia (Bawon) are to vote on whether to strike...

Let us tread carefully

3 hours ago | Opinion

When expectations are not met, citizens wronged in this regard should have channels, means and ways to air their grievances and have them addressed effectively.In...

Big banks target South Africa's...

3 hours ago | Business

Emma Rumney - South Africa's biggest banks are betting cut-price accounts, big mortgages and offers on everything from Adidas backpacks to Xboxes will help them...

Zim inflation almost doubles, stirring...

3 hours ago | Economics

MacDonald Dzirutwe and Karin Strohecker - Prices of cooking oil and other basics soared in Zimbabwe as inflation nearly doubled in June, piling pressure on...

Load More