Oil boom could repeat Namibia's mining inequality - economist Mboti says

Standard Bank economist Helena Mboti has warned that Namibia’s emerging oil and gas sector could exacerbate existing economic imbalances if the country does not rethink its current growth model.

Mboti told the Namibia Budget Dialogue hosted by Standard Bank in collaboration with Emeraldsands Platform in Windhoek yesterday.

She said Namibia has historically relied on extractive industries to drive growth, yet the benefits have not translated into broad-based economic expansion or employment creation.

“Mining has always been at the centre of our growth,” she said, adding that the sector’s expansion has not “fully translated into economic or unemployment and growth-based growth across the economy”.

She cautioned that the country’s recent oil and gas discoveries could repeat this pattern if structural changes are not made.

“If we don’t change that mindset now, the concern is that these problems will only be exacerbated with oil and gas and not necessarily solved by oil and gas,” Mboti said.

Her remarks come as Namibia positions itself as a potential oil-producing nation following major offshore discoveries in recent years.

Official figures have consistently shown that mining remains one of the largest contributors to the country’s economy.

The sector has accounted for roughly 13% of Namibia’s gross domestic product and has also contributed significantly to export earnings.

Despite its strong contribution to national output, Mboti argued that the benefits of the extractive sector have not sufficiently filtered into the wider economy.

Mboti also stressed that Namibia’s development ambitions cannot be financed solely by the government, saying stronger collaboration between the public and private sectors will be necessary.

“NDP6 cannot alone be financed by the government,” she said, referring to Namibia’s sixth National Development Plan.

Measurable daily actions

Meanwhile, global entrepreneur Vusi Thembekwayo said building a stronger domestic private sector will be key to creating a more resilient economy.

Thembekwayo argued that Namibia should not rely on foreign capital to develop its small and medium enterprise sector.

“There is nowhere in recorded history of any of the modern economies in the world where somebody else’s nation states invest in catalysing SMEs for another nation. No one is coming to build the SME ecosystem in Namibia,” he said.

Thembekwayo added that banks typically do not take the first risk in financing businesses, meaning early-stage investment must often come from private individuals or other capital sources before commercial banks become involved.

Thembekwayo also raised concerns about how productivity is measured within government institutions, saying large development strategies often fail because they are not broken down into measurable daily actions.

Robert Grant, a senior partner at KPMG, who also spoke at the event, said tax certainty and clear regulations remain important factors for attracting investors.

Grant noted that complex compliance systems increase costs for businesses, particularly for smaller companies.

“Compliance costs money,” he said, warning that overly complicated regulatory frameworks can reduce productivity and discourage investment.