Namibia downgraded from upper-middle-income country
Namibia has been downgraded from an upper-middle-income country to a lower-middle-income economy in the latest World Bank income classification, effective 1 July 2025.
The reclassification, revealed in the World Bank’s FY26 Updated Country Income Classification report, is largely attributed to a drop in Namibia’s Atlas Gross National Income (GNI) per capita – from US$4,870 in 2023 to US$4,240 in 2024. The fall pushes Namibia just below the revised threshold of US$4,495 required to retain upper-middle-income status.
The World Bank’s Atlas method takes into account inflation, exchange rates, population size, and economic performance. For Namibia, a combination of slower economic growth, population revision, and weakened mining output - especially in the diamond sector - was key to the downgrade.
Late former president Hage Geingob consistently criticised Namibia’s classification as an upper-middle income country, calling it misleading, unfair, and counterproductive. He often highlighted that this designation is based solely on per capita GDP - derived by dividing total GDP by a small population - which fails to reflect Namibia’s high income inequality, rooted in historical injustices.
The upper-middle income status, Geingob further argued, hinders access to concessional funding like soft loans and grants, crucial for tackling poverty, inequality, and unemployment.
A former Geingob aide, commenting on the reclassification, said: “Remember this was what Hage had been fighting for. It reflects our material conditions and frees up grant funding and other concessionary loans and so forth. It’s a good thing.”
While the country’s GDP expanded by 3.7% in 2024, this marked a notable deceleration from the 4.4% growth recorded the previous year. Inflation eased significantly, from 6.6% to 3.3%, but this was not enough to offset the downward pressure on national income per person.
Mining and quarrying, a key pillar of Namibia’s economy, shrank by 1.2% in 2024 after soaring by 19.3% in 2023, largely due to declining global demand for diamonds.
In a further blow, the UN Population Division revised Namibia’s 2023 population figures upwards by 13.8%, which diluted the country’s per capita income, resulting in a 12.9% reduction in its Atlas GNI per capita.
Namibia now joins countries like Cabo Verde and Samoa, which moved up from lower-middle to upper-middle-income brackets, while Costa Rica advanced into the high-income category.
The downgrade may have implications for Namibia’s access to concessional financing and its eligibility for certain World Bank support frameworks. It could also reshape how international institutions and investors perceive Namibia’s development trajectory.
With the country aiming for industrialisation and inclusive growth under Vision 2030, the new income status may prompt policymakers to re-evaluate economic resilience, especially in the face of external shocks and reliance on extractive industries.
The reclassification, revealed in the World Bank’s FY26 Updated Country Income Classification report, is largely attributed to a drop in Namibia’s Atlas Gross National Income (GNI) per capita – from US$4,870 in 2023 to US$4,240 in 2024. The fall pushes Namibia just below the revised threshold of US$4,495 required to retain upper-middle-income status.
The World Bank’s Atlas method takes into account inflation, exchange rates, population size, and economic performance. For Namibia, a combination of slower economic growth, population revision, and weakened mining output - especially in the diamond sector - was key to the downgrade.
Late former president Hage Geingob consistently criticised Namibia’s classification as an upper-middle income country, calling it misleading, unfair, and counterproductive. He often highlighted that this designation is based solely on per capita GDP - derived by dividing total GDP by a small population - which fails to reflect Namibia’s high income inequality, rooted in historical injustices.
The upper-middle income status, Geingob further argued, hinders access to concessional funding like soft loans and grants, crucial for tackling poverty, inequality, and unemployment.
A former Geingob aide, commenting on the reclassification, said: “Remember this was what Hage had been fighting for. It reflects our material conditions and frees up grant funding and other concessionary loans and so forth. It’s a good thing.”
While the country’s GDP expanded by 3.7% in 2024, this marked a notable deceleration from the 4.4% growth recorded the previous year. Inflation eased significantly, from 6.6% to 3.3%, but this was not enough to offset the downward pressure on national income per person.
Mining and quarrying, a key pillar of Namibia’s economy, shrank by 1.2% in 2024 after soaring by 19.3% in 2023, largely due to declining global demand for diamonds.
In a further blow, the UN Population Division revised Namibia’s 2023 population figures upwards by 13.8%, which diluted the country’s per capita income, resulting in a 12.9% reduction in its Atlas GNI per capita.
Namibia now joins countries like Cabo Verde and Samoa, which moved up from lower-middle to upper-middle-income brackets, while Costa Rica advanced into the high-income category.
The downgrade may have implications for Namibia’s access to concessional financing and its eligibility for certain World Bank support frameworks. It could also reshape how international institutions and investors perceive Namibia’s development trajectory.
With the country aiming for industrialisation and inclusive growth under Vision 2030, the new income status may prompt policymakers to re-evaluate economic resilience, especially in the face of external shocks and reliance on extractive industries.
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