Analysts poke holes in new unemployment figures

Local economists yesterday accused the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) of comparing strict unemployment in 2023 to broad unemployment in 2018 to arrive at the 36.9% unemployment rate the agency announced yesterday, instead of 54.8% if similar comparisons had been applied. Statistician general Alex Shimuafeni, the CEO of NSA, has announced that an analysis of the 2023 census data indicates 36.9% of Namibians are unemployed. This is 3.4% higher than in 2018 when unemployment stood at 33.4%.Reacting to the announcement, financial services company Cirrus Capital said the NSA&#039;s definition of unemployment has changed by now excluding the category of &#039;discouraged workers&#039;. “According to the standard definition, unemployment stands at 54.8%,” the company tweeted.“NSA has reclassified the standard, broad definition used to calculate the 54.8% rate as the Combined Rate of Unemployment and Potential Labour Force (CRUPLF).”It continued: “Of the working age population, there are 1 008 875 individuals not part of the labour force in 2023, compared to 438 770 in 2018. The exclusion of discouraged workers goes against the standards for African nations and other developing nations, who have to include discouraged jobseekers, as, particularly in Namibia&#039;s case, nearly 75% of unemployed jobseekers have failed to find any sort of employment for more than a year in 2018. Today, the NSA has excluded this data, signalling a worsening situation.”“There were 341 931 discouraged workers in 2023. This is now classified as the &#039;potential labour force&#039;. This is up from 185 119 in 2018.”‘Deceiving’ NamibiansAnalyst Lucas Martin, who works in the corporate advisory and private equity space, said NSA’s employment statistics were ‘fraud’.“In your reports, you compare 2018 and 2023 unemployment numbers under the same term, even though these numbers are actually defined and calculated very differently. It&#039;s wild misrepresentation, and we can&#039;t even place these two numbers on the same chart,” he said on the business and employment-focused online professional platform LinkedIn.He continued: “By your 2018 definition (broad unemployment, the most relevant figure for Namibia given our high inequality and low income), unemployment increased from 33.4% to 54.8%. By 2023&#039;s strict definition, unemployment increased from 19.8% to 36.9%."“Unfortunately, a majority of the population will not know this difference and will take your information as true, showing a more moderate decline from 33.4% to 36.9%. And it&#039;s incredibly sad to see one of our most key institutions disintegrate into deceiving the population it serves,” Martin lamented.NSA stands by its numbersShimuafeni yesterday emphasised that Namibia’s labour statistics are now calculated according to the 2019 International Conference of Labour Statisticians (ICLS) standards, which include all individuals over the age of 15.In 2023, Namibia&#039;s population above this age was recorded at 1 876 122, with 1 008 875 people classified as being outside the labour force. Employment is now defined as any work performed for pay or profit, and according to this definition, 63.1% of Namibia’s labour force is employed or self-employed.NSA’s senior labour statistician Onesmus Shalonda pointed out that employment levels remain low, with only 29.1% of the total Namibian population engaged in work. Furthermore, 96.8% of the potential labour force is discouraged from seeking employment. The potential labour force includes individuals of working age who continue applying for jobs but are not immediately available, as well as those who have given up searching altogether."The combined rate of youth unemployment and the potential workforce stands at 61.4%, meaning that more than 60% of young people experience some form of labour underutilisation," Shalonda explained.The struggle He further noted a significant imbalance between labour supply and demand, particularly affecting young Namibians who struggle to find employment. In the age group of 15 to 35 years, 252 886 individuals are employed, compared to 202 144 unemployed, while 563 499 remain outside the labour force.Only 24.8% of Namibian youth are employed, mainly in agriculture, forestry and fisheries (18.8%), followed by retail (11.2%) and domestic work (9.6%). Manufacturing employs just 9% of the working youth.Youth unemployment in rural areas has improved from 49.1% in 2018 to 41.3% in 2023, while urban youth unemployment has increased from 44% to 46.1%. “Many migrate to urban areas in search of opportunities, but ultimately, they still end up unemployed,” Shalonda noted.Staggering unemploymentHe stressed that Namibia faces low employment levels and discouraged job seekers, along with limited job creation. "Young workers are underutilised, but the figures indicate that they want to work," Shalonda said. A major concern is the percentage of unemployed youth who are also not enrolled in any form of education or training. This figure stands at 41.9% nationwide, but in some regions, it is even more alarming – 62.8% in Kunene and 56.1% in Zambezi.The region with the highest unemployment rate is Kavango West (52.8%), closely followed by Kavango East (52%). In Kavango West’s Musese constituency, 67.3% of the labour force is unemployed, while Kapako has a 66.5% unemployment rate. In Kavango East, the Ndiyona constituency reports 65.2% unemployment, with youth unemployment in the region at 60.4%. Ndiyona’s youth unemployment rate is 73.2%.The worst-affected constituency in the entire country for youth unemployment is Epupa in Kunene, where a staggering 80.7% of young people are unemployed.– Additional reporting by Augetto Graig

Analysts poke holes in new unemployment figures

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Namibian Sun 2025-05-02

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Analysts poke holes in new unemployment figures

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Namibian Sun 2025-05-02

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