Winter and spring rain chances slim
Chances for rain this winter and spring are scant, but improve from November onwards.
A report by agricultural meteorologist, Johan van den Berg, says the probability for a full scale La Niña to continue during the next six months is about 60%, with the probability for El Niño conditions at around 5%.
In southern Africa's summer rainfall region, El Niño brings drought and La Niña brings rain, plus higher minimum and maximum temperatures.
“It is likely that the La Niña intensity will weaken in the July to September period, but it is still expected to maintain weak La Niña conditions. Current forecasts indicate that La Niña will return to neutral conditions in early 2023,” the meteorologist said.
Positive signs
The Indian Ocean Dipole Index (IOD) is currently in a neutral phase, but the latest forecasts indicate a sharp drop towards the negative phase from about June to at least September, he explains.
A negative IOD is positive for summer rainfall, indicating cooler surface water towards the western Indian Ocean (on the African coast) and warmer water towards Australia, as was the case in 2021.
The Namibia Meteorological Service (NMS) meanwhile warns that east wind conditions will persist over the Namib and coastal areas.
According to the latest dam bulletin, issued by Namwater last week, the total average level of Namibia’s dams stands at 81.1%, while the level of the dams in the central areas stand at 59.4%.
The dams in the south stood at 89.8% capacity and those in the east are at 22%.
A report by agricultural meteorologist, Johan van den Berg, says the probability for a full scale La Niña to continue during the next six months is about 60%, with the probability for El Niño conditions at around 5%.
In southern Africa's summer rainfall region, El Niño brings drought and La Niña brings rain, plus higher minimum and maximum temperatures.
“It is likely that the La Niña intensity will weaken in the July to September period, but it is still expected to maintain weak La Niña conditions. Current forecasts indicate that La Niña will return to neutral conditions in early 2023,” the meteorologist said.
Positive signs
The Indian Ocean Dipole Index (IOD) is currently in a neutral phase, but the latest forecasts indicate a sharp drop towards the negative phase from about June to at least September, he explains.
A negative IOD is positive for summer rainfall, indicating cooler surface water towards the western Indian Ocean (on the African coast) and warmer water towards Australia, as was the case in 2021.
The Namibia Meteorological Service (NMS) meanwhile warns that east wind conditions will persist over the Namib and coastal areas.
According to the latest dam bulletin, issued by Namwater last week, the total average level of Namibia’s dams stands at 81.1%, while the level of the dams in the central areas stand at 59.4%.
The dams in the south stood at 89.8% capacity and those in the east are at 22%.
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