Progression of seasonal rain stalls

After a good start with normal to above-normal rainfall across most countries in October and November, the progression of the 2022/2023 rainfall season in southern Africa has been stalled by a drier than average period that started in December.According to the Southern Africa Seasonal Monitor report by the World Food Programme, although the broad seasonal rainfall pattern remains normal to above-normal across the region, there are areas where dryness has been persistent.These include the north-east of Namibia, central and south-east Angola, Tanzania, northern Mozambique and northern areas of Madagascar."These patterns are supported by analysis of the timing of the onset of the growing seasons, satellite vegetation and land surface temperature," it said.The drier conditions since early December may be affecting early planted crops or have delayed the start of agricultural activities.According to the report, indications from short-range forecasts that point to the continuation of drier conditions throughout January raise some concern."If this continues into February, important consequences may result for crops."Drier than averageThe short-range outlook for mid-January indicated a wide area of drier-than-average conditions, extending from Namibia across Botswana and Zimbabwe, into south and central Mozambique, the southern half of Madagascar and South Africa&#039;s north-east maize-growing region.Elsewhere, Angola, Zambia, northern Mozambique and Tanzania should enjoy favourable rainfall."Overall, for the month of January, we expect the continuation of drier conditions in Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and south and central Mozambique."Areas of concernMeanwhile, long-range rainfall forecasts remain favourable, with indications for a wetter-than-average second half of the season, but this does not account for irregularities in its distribution, the report said."Areas of concern are southern Angola, northern Namibia, the border areas of Tanzania, northern Mozambique and north-eastern Madagascar where there has been a rainfall deficit since the start of the season and negative consequences for food security in the harvest season may develop."Angola and northern Namibia, in the areas of Cunene and Cuando Cubango, have been particularly affected, it said.Further, the Namibia Meteorological Services has warned that moderate to heavy rainfall will persist in the extreme central north and north-west.

Progression of seasonal rain stalls

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Namibian Sun 2025-05-13

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Progression of seasonal rain stalls

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Namibian Sun 2025-05-13

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