Little rain expected until middle November
Namibia can expect very little or no rain until at least mid-November, but average to above-average rainfall is expected from December to February.
This is according to independent agriculture meteorologist Johan van den Berg, who says that temperatures will be warm to hot.
He says that the 2022/2023 La Niña is expected to reach about the same intensity as the 2021/2022 midsummer.
Different trend
However, forecasts indicate a weakening trend from about the turn of the calendar year in December and January, compared to the La Niña event in 2021/2022 that intensified from about February to June 2022.
Furthermore, the Indian Ocean Dipole Index (IOD) is in a strong negative phase and index values will be about 1°C cooler than normal until the end of October before it will weaken to also become neutral in about November/December.
"The current negative phase of the IOD index is the strongest since at least 2018 and is significantly positive for rainfall," said van den Berg.
According to him, the current La Niña is well established, although at moderate levels as was the case in 2021/22.
A little less
The total average level of Namibia’s storage dams this week stood at 75.7%, compared to the 76% of last season.
According to NamWater’s latest dam bulletin issued on Monday, in the Central Areas of Namibia, average dam levels stood at 49.1%, compared to last season when they were 69.3% full.
The Swakoppoort Dam is now at 80.3% of its capacity, the Von Bach is 41.4% full and the level of the Omatako Dam is at 2.8%
The Friendenau Dam is 80.8% full and the Goreangab Dam is at 100.8%. It has received an inflow of 0.137 million cubic metres of water since last week.
In the south, the average dam levels stand at 84.7%, compared to last season when they were 61.5% full.
Release
The Hardap Dam is 56.3% full, the Neckartal Dam’s level stands at 96.3% and the Naute Dam is at 86.3%.
However, NamWater plans to release 50 000 cubic metres of water from the dam today as part of an environmental water requirement study by the agriculture ministry.
Meanwhile, the Oanob Dam stands at 72.1%, the Dreihuk Dam at 7.5% and the Bondels Dam is empty.
In the east of the country, the total average of the dam levels is 17.6%, while last season they were 31.4%.
The Otjivero Main Dam is 24.8% full, the Tilda Viljoen Dam is at 52.5%, and the Daan Viljoen Dam is 43.8%.
In other parts of the country, the Olushandja Dam in the Oshana Region is 10.3% full, while both the Omaruru Delta Dam, located in the Erongo Region, and the Omatjenne Dam in the Otjozondjupa Region are empty.
This is according to independent agriculture meteorologist Johan van den Berg, who says that temperatures will be warm to hot.
He says that the 2022/2023 La Niña is expected to reach about the same intensity as the 2021/2022 midsummer.
Different trend
However, forecasts indicate a weakening trend from about the turn of the calendar year in December and January, compared to the La Niña event in 2021/2022 that intensified from about February to June 2022.
Furthermore, the Indian Ocean Dipole Index (IOD) is in a strong negative phase and index values will be about 1°C cooler than normal until the end of October before it will weaken to also become neutral in about November/December.
"The current negative phase of the IOD index is the strongest since at least 2018 and is significantly positive for rainfall," said van den Berg.
According to him, the current La Niña is well established, although at moderate levels as was the case in 2021/22.
A little less
The total average level of Namibia’s storage dams this week stood at 75.7%, compared to the 76% of last season.
According to NamWater’s latest dam bulletin issued on Monday, in the Central Areas of Namibia, average dam levels stood at 49.1%, compared to last season when they were 69.3% full.
The Swakoppoort Dam is now at 80.3% of its capacity, the Von Bach is 41.4% full and the level of the Omatako Dam is at 2.8%
The Friendenau Dam is 80.8% full and the Goreangab Dam is at 100.8%. It has received an inflow of 0.137 million cubic metres of water since last week.
In the south, the average dam levels stand at 84.7%, compared to last season when they were 61.5% full.
Release
The Hardap Dam is 56.3% full, the Neckartal Dam’s level stands at 96.3% and the Naute Dam is at 86.3%.
However, NamWater plans to release 50 000 cubic metres of water from the dam today as part of an environmental water requirement study by the agriculture ministry.
Meanwhile, the Oanob Dam stands at 72.1%, the Dreihuk Dam at 7.5% and the Bondels Dam is empty.
In the east of the country, the total average of the dam levels is 17.6%, while last season they were 31.4%.
The Otjivero Main Dam is 24.8% full, the Tilda Viljoen Dam is at 52.5%, and the Daan Viljoen Dam is 43.8%.
In other parts of the country, the Olushandja Dam in the Oshana Region is 10.3% full, while both the Omaruru Delta Dam, located in the Erongo Region, and the Omatjenne Dam in the Otjozondjupa Region are empty.
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