Hot and dry forecast for Namibia

The Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (Sarcof) has forecast below-normal rainfall over Namibia for the whole of the 2026/27 season.At a recent meeting in Swakopmund, a Namibia Meteorological Service official said such forecasts have long failed to reach the public in usable form.The forum, Sarcof-33, sat from 25 to 28 August.Following a four-day meeting in late August, the forum forecast less rain than normal across Namibia from October 2026 to March 2027.It holds across the whole season, with the forecasters most confident about the months to February. Temperatures from October to January are expected to be above average across most of the region.The forecast rests on El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which models expect to reach strong to very strong levels around October to December, and on a weather pattern in the Indian Ocean (Indian Ocean Dipole) expected to develop from September.The statement says it should not be read as a forecast for particular districts or individual months.Sieglinde Somses, a Namibian meteorological technician for climate services, told a panel session at the forum that her sector had for years failed to put forecasts into terms the public could use."The technical terminology is one of the main barriers that we are struggling with," Somses said.She said statements such as this one require follow-up that does not take place."We send out this information, but we don't follow up… but we need to follow up," she said.Somses said member states are expected to downscale the regional outlook into national forecasts, and that the national release is where the gaps should be addressed.Media training a barrierVictoria Ruzvidzo, editor of The Herald in Zimbabwe, said newsrooms lack journalists with science training and treat climate as competition for space."Sometimes where we must just report simply that there's a 40% chance of drought or below-normal rainfall, we'll write a screaming headline, 'SADC region in trouble', when we could have simply stated the actual effects on the ground," she said.She said reporters publish material they do not understand."They are not communicating to us. They are just giving us the technical jargon. And when we see them, we just reproduce them."She said she had learned more about climatology during the forum than in 33 years in the profession.McLarence Mandaza, technical lead for environmental sustainability and climate at World Vision Southern Africa, said the science is not the gap."I think we have demonstrated consistently that the forecast is no longer a problem," he said.He said few districts and communities know what action a forecast should trigger, and that money to act in advance is not available."Funding for anticipatory action has remained less than 5%," he said.He said El Niño is read as a guarantee of drought."When communities hear about El Nino, they automatically think that it's going to be a terrible drought. But it's about preparation," he said.Eben Kalondo of the Namibia Red Cross called for a social contract binding forecasters, government, telecommunications operators, media and humanitarian agencies to measurable action."Otherwise, the forecast means nothing," she said.

Hot and dry forecast for Namibia

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Namibian Sun 2026-09-08

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Hot and dry forecast for Namibia

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Namibian Sun 2026-09-08

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