Swapo support wanes in urban areas and heartland, IPPR report finds
Party at a critical crossroads
A new analysis of the 2024 elections by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) has warned that unless Swapo can reinvent itself ahead of the 2029 general elections, it risks slipping below 50% support for the first time in the nation’s history.
The report, released last week and titled 'Inside the Numbers of Namibia’s 2024 Vote: Fraying Dominance, Fragmented Opposition', was presented by IPPR research associate Max Weylandt, who described Swapo’s decade-long electoral decline as “broad, comprehensive and largely self-inflicted.”
“Swapo’s 2024 performance was not just a bad election; it was a turning point,” Weylandt said during a presentation. “The party has lost ground in every type of constituency, urban and rural, north and south. Its support base is shrinking faster than many anticipated.”
The findings come less than three weeks before the November regional and local elections, setting the stage for what may be the most competitive vote since independence, Weylandt pointed out.
Urban collapse
According to IPPR's data analysis, Swapo’s decline was sharpest in urban centres, which now house half of Namibia’s population. In the Khomas region, the party’s vote share fell from 77% in 2014 to 49% in 2019, and further to 38% in 2024.
In Windhoek’s largest constituency, Samora Machel, Swapo’s support plummeted from 85% in 2014 to 54% in 2019 and just 41% last year – a loss of 44 percentage points over a decade.
In Moses ?Garoëb, backing fell from 90% to 62% to 50%, while in Tobias Hainyeko it declined from 87% to 52%.
The party’s decline is equally stark along the coast. In the Erongo region, Swapo’s share in Swakopmund fell from 71% in 2014 to 45% in 2019 and just 29% in 2024. In Walvis Bay Urban, where the party once commanded 85%, it held 34% in the previous election.
“Losing the cities means losing the future,” Weylandt said. “Khomas and Erongo together make up nearly a third of the national electorate, and both are now opposition territory. Urban Namibia has turned its back on Swapo.”
Census data underscore this risk. The 2023 National Census found that 50% of Namibians now live in urban areas, up from 43% in 2011. As the country continues to urbanise, Swapo’s reliance on rural voters may no longer guarantee national victories.
Fractures in the heartland
Even in Swapo’s northern stronghold, the so-called ‘4 O’ regions, Oshana, Oshikoto, Ohangwena and Omusati, support is softening. These regions once provided the backbone of Swapo’s national dominance: in 2014, the party won 92% of votes there, contributing 41% of its total national vote, the IPPR report noted.
By 2019, that regional share had dropped to 78%, and in 2024 to 69%, giving Swapo just under 30% of its national vote from the 4 Os.
The erosion is uneven but significant, IPPR pointed out.
In Oshana, both Ondangwa constituencies fell below 50% support in 2024. In Oshikoto, Swapo lost its majority in Tsumeb, dropping from 82% in 2014 to 45% in 2024. Only Omusati and Ohangwena maintained two-thirds majorities across all constituencies, with Omusati averaging around 73%.
“The 4 Os are becoming the 2 Os,” Weylandt observed. “If the current trajectory continues, even Swapo’s most loyal base won’t be able to offset losses elsewhere. The once-solid north is beginning to crumble.”
Southern revolt
In the sparsely populated south, the story is equally revealing. The Hardap and ||Kharas regions, which together make up less than 8% of the national electorate, have shifted decisively towards the opposition.
“Even though the south doesn’t decide elections by numbers, it’s a warning sign,” Weylandt explained. “It shows that whole regions can turn against the ruling party, and stay there.”
Despite Swapo’s setbacks, the IPPR report cautions that Namibia’s opposition remains “fragmented and underdeveloped.” The Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) emerged as the leading opposition force, securing just under 30% nationally in 2024. The Affirmative Repositioning (AR) movement won around 7%, while the Landless People’s Movement (LPM) grew its share from 4.7% in 2019 to 5.2% in 2024.
“Swapo’s wounds are self-inflicted, but the opposition still struggles to draw blood,” Weylandt noted. “The opposition parties collectively now attract nearly half of Namibia’s voters, yet none has the reach or resources to form a government. Many opposition supporters express weak loyalties; they vote against Swapo, not for an alternative.”
Party remains confident
Responding to the IPPR findings, Swapo Party national spokesperson Hilma Nicanor said on Friday that the party remains focused on renewal, accountability and improving service delivery and that it will win the 2029 elections.
“After every election, we conduct a post-mortem to assess our performance and identify where we need to improve,” Nicanor said. “If it is found that the challenges relate to service delivery, we take decisive action to ensure that our party functionaries in decision-making positions respond to those issues," she added.
"We must improve how services are delivered to our people.”
Nicanor added that Swapo’s record remains solid and that the party continues to refine its strategies to stay connected to Namibians.
“People in this country know exactly what Swapo is and what it has done for Namibia, our track record speaks for itself,” she said. “We are strengthening our strategies to engage our people, to listen to their concerns, and to ensure that the commitments we make in our election manifesto are fulfilled.”
She further revealed that the party has, for the first time, developed a manifesto implementation plan for the 2025–2030 period to align Swapo’s political commitments with national development goals.
The report, released last week and titled 'Inside the Numbers of Namibia’s 2024 Vote: Fraying Dominance, Fragmented Opposition', was presented by IPPR research associate Max Weylandt, who described Swapo’s decade-long electoral decline as “broad, comprehensive and largely self-inflicted.”
“Swapo’s 2024 performance was not just a bad election; it was a turning point,” Weylandt said during a presentation. “The party has lost ground in every type of constituency, urban and rural, north and south. Its support base is shrinking faster than many anticipated.”
The findings come less than three weeks before the November regional and local elections, setting the stage for what may be the most competitive vote since independence, Weylandt pointed out.
Urban collapse
According to IPPR's data analysis, Swapo’s decline was sharpest in urban centres, which now house half of Namibia’s population. In the Khomas region, the party’s vote share fell from 77% in 2014 to 49% in 2019, and further to 38% in 2024.
In Windhoek’s largest constituency, Samora Machel, Swapo’s support plummeted from 85% in 2014 to 54% in 2019 and just 41% last year – a loss of 44 percentage points over a decade.
In Moses ?Garoëb, backing fell from 90% to 62% to 50%, while in Tobias Hainyeko it declined from 87% to 52%.
The party’s decline is equally stark along the coast. In the Erongo region, Swapo’s share in Swakopmund fell from 71% in 2014 to 45% in 2019 and just 29% in 2024. In Walvis Bay Urban, where the party once commanded 85%, it held 34% in the previous election.
“Losing the cities means losing the future,” Weylandt said. “Khomas and Erongo together make up nearly a third of the national electorate, and both are now opposition territory. Urban Namibia has turned its back on Swapo.”
Census data underscore this risk. The 2023 National Census found that 50% of Namibians now live in urban areas, up from 43% in 2011. As the country continues to urbanise, Swapo’s reliance on rural voters may no longer guarantee national victories.
Fractures in the heartland
Even in Swapo’s northern stronghold, the so-called ‘4 O’ regions, Oshana, Oshikoto, Ohangwena and Omusati, support is softening. These regions once provided the backbone of Swapo’s national dominance: in 2014, the party won 92% of votes there, contributing 41% of its total national vote, the IPPR report noted.
By 2019, that regional share had dropped to 78%, and in 2024 to 69%, giving Swapo just under 30% of its national vote from the 4 Os.
The erosion is uneven but significant, IPPR pointed out.
In Oshana, both Ondangwa constituencies fell below 50% support in 2024. In Oshikoto, Swapo lost its majority in Tsumeb, dropping from 82% in 2014 to 45% in 2024. Only Omusati and Ohangwena maintained two-thirds majorities across all constituencies, with Omusati averaging around 73%.
“The 4 Os are becoming the 2 Os,” Weylandt observed. “If the current trajectory continues, even Swapo’s most loyal base won’t be able to offset losses elsewhere. The once-solid north is beginning to crumble.”
Southern revolt
In the sparsely populated south, the story is equally revealing. The Hardap and ||Kharas regions, which together make up less than 8% of the national electorate, have shifted decisively towards the opposition.
“Even though the south doesn’t decide elections by numbers, it’s a warning sign,” Weylandt explained. “It shows that whole regions can turn against the ruling party, and stay there.”
Despite Swapo’s setbacks, the IPPR report cautions that Namibia’s opposition remains “fragmented and underdeveloped.” The Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) emerged as the leading opposition force, securing just under 30% nationally in 2024. The Affirmative Repositioning (AR) movement won around 7%, while the Landless People’s Movement (LPM) grew its share from 4.7% in 2019 to 5.2% in 2024.
“Swapo’s wounds are self-inflicted, but the opposition still struggles to draw blood,” Weylandt noted. “The opposition parties collectively now attract nearly half of Namibia’s voters, yet none has the reach or resources to form a government. Many opposition supporters express weak loyalties; they vote against Swapo, not for an alternative.”
Party remains confident
Responding to the IPPR findings, Swapo Party national spokesperson Hilma Nicanor said on Friday that the party remains focused on renewal, accountability and improving service delivery and that it will win the 2029 elections.
“After every election, we conduct a post-mortem to assess our performance and identify where we need to improve,” Nicanor said. “If it is found that the challenges relate to service delivery, we take decisive action to ensure that our party functionaries in decision-making positions respond to those issues," she added.
"We must improve how services are delivered to our people.”
Nicanor added that Swapo’s record remains solid and that the party continues to refine its strategies to stay connected to Namibians.
“People in this country know exactly what Swapo is and what it has done for Namibia, our track record speaks for itself,” she said. “We are strengthening our strategies to engage our people, to listen to their concerns, and to ensure that the commitments we make in our election manifesto are fulfilled.”
She further revealed that the party has, for the first time, developed a manifesto implementation plan for the 2025–2030 period to align Swapo’s political commitments with national development goals.
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