Bloodied noses expected in urban battlegrounds

Tomorrow’s regional council and local authority elections are expected to hinge primarily on the country’s urban votes, where political loyalties have shifted dramatically since the 2020 elections and the turbulent 2024 general election.From Windhoek to Walvis Bay, Swakopmund to Keetmanshoop, Namibia's towns have become the decisive arena for parties, old and new. Urban voters – younger, impatient and deeply frustrated with service-delivery failures – are shaping a political landscape unlike any Namibians have experienced since independence.The 2020 regional and local authority elections delivered the clearest signal yet that urban Namibia was breaking with old political patterns. A total of 1 375 640 Namibians were registered to vote, yet turnout was shockingly low, with 526 337 ballots cast – only 38.26% of eligible voters. It was in the towns where this disillusionment was most pronounced and where the ruling party’s support was most severely eroded.Voter fatigueThe results told their own story. Swapo, while still the largest party nationally with 293 626 votes (56.55%), lost outright control of several major municipalities. The Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) made a dramatic entrance with 89 030 votes (17.14%), becoming the main urban disruptor together with the Landless People’s Movement (LPM), which captured much of the southern regions.LPM and Popular Democratic Movement (PDM), which commands good support in the Kunene region, closely matched each other with 35 184 (6.77%) and 35 010 (6.74%) votes, respectively, while National Unity Democratic Organisation (NUDO) captured 12 258 votes (2.36%). The rest of the field – smaller parties and community groups – collectively gathered 50 296 votes (9.68%), clearly demonstrating the fragmentation of urban politics.The regional council results reinforced this splintered landscape.Out of 121 constituencies, Swapo secured 88, but the remaining seats were split among smaller parties and independents: LPM (12), IPC (5), NUDO (4), PDM (4), UDF (4) and independent candidates (4). Four additional constituencies – Mankumpi, Nkurenkuru, Tondoro and Uuvudhiya – were uncontested, with only Swapo fielding candidates.Service delivery frustrationsHousing shortages, poor land allocation systems, water and sanitation failures, collapsing municipal leadership, slow job creation and spiralling living costs have turned service delivery into the most decisive factor in urban voting. Political commentator Dr Ndumba Kamwanyah argues that the public's disillusionment will shape outcomes across cities and towns.“The outcomes this week will mostly be shaped by how people feel about service delivery," he says."Many voters are frustrated with slow progress on housing, land, jobs and basic services, and that frustration affects how they vote,” he explains.Urban residents have grown weary of administrative breakdowns: endless acting CEOs, unstable councils, budget chaos and procurement controversies. These failures are most visible in the cities, where the majority of Namibians now live. The demand for efficiency, accountability and transparency has therefore become the defining political currency in Namibia’s urban hotspots.Towns the main theatres of competitionWindhoek, Walvis Bay, Swakopmund, Keetmanshoop, Mariental, Lüderitz and Okahandja are now the key theatres of political combat. Unlike rural constituencies, where Swapo still retains strong structures and deep loyalty, urban spaces have become fluid, competitive and unpredictable.In these towns, the battleground includes a wide array of actors. Swapo is campaigning aggressively to reclaim lost ground, while Affirmative Repositioning (AR) – now the third-largest party in parliament after the 2024 election – is looking to convert its urban parliamentary momentum into real municipal power. IPC remains a formidable urban competitor after its strong 2020 showing. The LPM, PDM, NUDO, UDF, local ratepayers’ associations and a growing number of community movements further complicate the terrain.Kamwanyah notes an emerging voter trend toward smaller groups and local champions. “Some communities are moving away from big national parties and supporting smaller groups or local associations and independent candidates,” he says.Independent candidatesIndependent candidates secured four regional council seats in 2020, a modest number but politically significant given Namibia’s first-past-the-post electoral system for regional councils. Their success was most notable in constituencies where individual reputation mattered more than party allegiance.As the country heads into the 2025 vote, independents remain a real factor in urban and peri-urban seats – particularly in the two Kavango regions and parts of Zambezi – though their overall capacity to challenge established parties remains limited.Kamwanyah cautions against overstating their influence. “Independent candidates will take part, but they face challenges. They often don’t have money, strong structures or volunteers, so it is hard for them to compete with parties. They may win in places like the two Kavangos, where they already have a strong local reputation, but overall they are not expected to be a major national force,” he says.Coalitions likely againGiven the fragmentation observed in 2020, including the presence of 57 local authorities contesting under proportional representation systems, coalition politics is almost guaranteed to shape most towns again. The 2020 experience, which led to multiple unstable coalitions, leadership tussles and administrative standstills, offers a preview of the complexity that awaits once results are tallied.Kamwanyah expects coalitions to be widespread. “Because so many parties and local groups are contesting, coalitions are likely in a number of towns. Some councils may end up shared between parties if no one gets more than 50%,” he notes. While certain rural areas may still yield outright Swapo victories, the urban picture is much more fractured, making negotiations inevitable.Turnout will be an important variable. The 38.26% turnout in 2020 was a historic low, and an increase, especially among urban youth, could reshape entire councils. Urban contests are often decided by small margins, meaning even modest turnout swings could produce upsets.#namibiadecides2025

Bloodied noses expected in urban battlegrounds

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Namibian Sun 2025-11-25

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Bloodied noses expected in urban battlegrounds

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Namibian Sun 2025-11-25

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