EDITORIAL: A wake-up call wrapped in opportunity
Namibia’s recent demotion from an upper-middle-income to a lower-middle-income country by the World Bank may sting, but it should not surprise. It is a sobering reflection of long-standing economic fragilities and policy inertia - a wake-up call dressed as a statistical downgrade.
Effective 1 July 2025, this reclassification follows a drop in Namibia’s Atlas Gross National Income (GNI) per capita from US$4,870 in 2023 to US$4,240 in 2024, pushing the country below the threshold for upper-middle-income status. This isn’t just a numbers game. It’s an indictment of our overdependence on extractive industries, lack of economic diversification, and institutional shortcomings.
True, not all the drivers of this decline were domestic. A global slump in diamond demand hit our mining sector hard. The revision of Namibia’s population estimates - which ballooned by nearly 14% under UN data - further diluted our per capita income. But we cannot chalk this up to bad luck alone.
For years, economists and planners have warned of our dangerous overreliance on minerals, especially diamonds. Yet, policy ambition has lagged behind. Despite glossy visions and strategic frameworks, diversification into manufacturing, agriculture, and renewable energy has been timid at best.
Worse still, the downgrade lays bare institutional weaknesses in our most basic systems - like population data. Inaccurate or outdated demographic information is not just a planning oversight; it’s a policy failure.
Herein lies the paradox: Namibia was considered too rich to qualify for help, but too poor to self-finance meaningful development. Many of our regions have never tasted the fruits of “middle-income” life. In places like Kavango, Zambezi and the deep south, poverty and inequality remain deeply entrenched. If this downgrade finally brings resources to uplift those left behind, then perhaps it is not a setback, but a recalibration.
Effective 1 July 2025, this reclassification follows a drop in Namibia’s Atlas Gross National Income (GNI) per capita from US$4,870 in 2023 to US$4,240 in 2024, pushing the country below the threshold for upper-middle-income status. This isn’t just a numbers game. It’s an indictment of our overdependence on extractive industries, lack of economic diversification, and institutional shortcomings.
True, not all the drivers of this decline were domestic. A global slump in diamond demand hit our mining sector hard. The revision of Namibia’s population estimates - which ballooned by nearly 14% under UN data - further diluted our per capita income. But we cannot chalk this up to bad luck alone.
For years, economists and planners have warned of our dangerous overreliance on minerals, especially diamonds. Yet, policy ambition has lagged behind. Despite glossy visions and strategic frameworks, diversification into manufacturing, agriculture, and renewable energy has been timid at best.
Worse still, the downgrade lays bare institutional weaknesses in our most basic systems - like population data. Inaccurate or outdated demographic information is not just a planning oversight; it’s a policy failure.
Herein lies the paradox: Namibia was considered too rich to qualify for help, but too poor to self-finance meaningful development. Many of our regions have never tasted the fruits of “middle-income” life. In places like Kavango, Zambezi and the deep south, poverty and inequality remain deeply entrenched. If this downgrade finally brings resources to uplift those left behind, then perhaps it is not a setback, but a recalibration.
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