Congress or no congress: Swapo needs saving

Death, timely and untimely, upsets many things. For years, it has knocked many grand and well-thought-out plans off balance, leaving debris and unsightly blots in its wake. Those left behind stand akimbo, their heads spinning in disbelief.

Swapo finds itself in that death-like situation, following the unfortunate and sad death of its president, Dr Hage Geingob, on 4 February.

He was also Namibia's third president, whose second and last term was due to end in March next year.

How Swapo extricates itself from this complex situation, further complicated by some prominent leaders within its rank and file, depends on how its leadership looks at itself in the mirror – but without Geingob.

Mature defeat

In November 2022, Swapo held its ordinary congress, where the new leadership was elected to run the party's affairs for the next five years, until 2027. President Geingob was re-elected unopposed, despite Swapo rules stating that each of the top four positions must be contested by at least three candidates.

At that time, and for good reasons, nobody invoked the party's constitution to challenge this move. Wisdom prevailed, and Swapo emerged from that congress much stronger and more united than it went in. All eyes, however, were transfixed on who would be the vice-president (VP) of Swapo, because that person would be Swapo's candidate in this year's presidential and National Assembly elections, scheduled for November.

That VP position was hotly contested.

Incumbent VP, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, overwhelmingly won the race with 491 votes, leaving Prime Minister Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila and environment and tourism minister, Pohamba Shifeta – believed to have been Geingob's blue-eyed boy behind the scene – trailing behind with 270 and 91 votes, respectively.

They all accepted defeat. Maturity, at its best too, had prevailed. Should the extraordinary congress take place, only filthy moneyed-brown envelopes will alter those votes. It's the same delegates who attended the 2022 congres who will attend the extraordinary congress.

The message was clear: Nandi-Ndaitwah would carry the Swapo flag high as its presidential candidate in November, a message boldly sealed, signed, and delivered.

Some have called for an extraordinary congress, arguing that the ordinary congress in 2022 did not have the mandate to elect a presidential candidate.

Reasons for or against the extraordinary congress were thrown and peddled around. To clear up the mess, legal gurus aptly explained the rules and constitutional provisions, and the issue died a natural death. Everything fell into place. Or so we thought. Until karma woke us up on Sunday morning, 4 February, telling us that president Geingob had passed away.

Defining moment for Swapo

Within less than eight hours of Geingob's death, we had a new president and vice-president in the persons of Nangolo Mbumba and Nandi-Ndaitwah, respectively. The transition at the state level was smooth and peaceful, a rare occurrence in Africa. But, now it seems it will not be so smooth at the party level. The death of Geingob has sent Swapo back to the drawing board.

Constitutionally, his position must be filled within three months. This calls for an extraordinary congress. Therein lies the danger for Swapo and the confusion that will ensue when the extraordinary congress is over. This is a defining moment for Swapo. Thus, nerves of steel, not failure of courage, test and compel the leadership to take informed decisions and save Swapo. The alternatives are chaos and anarchy.

It all depends now on how the leadership treats this matter, as sensitive and serious as it is. Many things hang on that congress. How Swapo emerges from the congress will determine how Swapo performs in the presidential and National Assembly elections this year. This is scary stuff. This is a crisis that must be boldly and firmly resolved, and responsibly.

Swapo leaders should seriously sit down, deeply and carefully consider the ramifications that come with that congress and plot a way forward that gives Swapo a competitive advantage over other parties taking part in the elections.

We, as Swapo members and the nation at large, have already been prepared that Swapo vice-president, now acting Swapo president, Nandi-Ndaitwah, is our candidate in those elections. She visited all the regions last year, conveying that same message.

Consider Swapo’s future

The extraordinary congress, if it takes place, should be carefully managed in such a way that it produces Nandi-Ndaitwah as our candidate. This means she should emerge from that congress as Swapo president. Swapo leaders should look at the bigger picture, namely, saving Swapo in the next elections. It would, therefore, not be ideal to produce any other candidate than Nandi-Ndaitwah.

It's okay to say the constitution of Swapo says this and that, and other members may be tempted to challenge Nandi-Ndaitwah at the extraordinary congress. But that will only disadvantage Swapo. Swapo, as wounded as it is already, cannot afford new, unmanageable factions in the run-up to the elections. Leaders, including those who still harbour presidential ambitions, should consider the bigger picture rather than the correctness of the Swapo constitution.

The bigger picture now is to save Swapo and go into the November elections united and rallying behind Nandi-Ndaitwah.

Egos will not save Swapo. Enlightened interests will. Make Nandi-Ndaitwah the president of Swapo, contest other positions, and produce a united Swapo from that extraordinary congress.

That's the only option we have. I don't want to mention names about who may or may not stand to challenge Nandi-Ndaitwah. That's up to the leadership to decide. But I don't think that Swapo leaders would prefer to be content with the correctness of the Swapo constitution, which will only cause heavy reputational damage to the party in the elections and kick Swapo under the bus.

Date with destiny

Mbumba is now the president of Namibia. To his credit, he has managed a smooth transition exceptionally well.

For that, he must be profusely commended.

As a member and leader of Swapo, he obviously also bears a heavy responsibility to help steer the ship. State powers are now vested in him. All that Namibians yearn for now is a smooth transition at the party level. He certainly doesn't want a wounded Swapo. They should work as a team to ensure that things move smoothly.

The 2022 Swapo congress boldly pronounced itself on Nandi-Ndaitwah. It would defy logic to rubbish that boldness. People should not use the unfortunate death of president Hage Geingob to rock the boat. Swapo is greater than all of us. We all lose if Swapo loses. This is history at play. The overarching question is: In whose hands will Swapo lose power? History will judge us harshly if Swapo were to lose. In a nutshell, this is our date with destiny, our rendezvous with history. Only time will tell.

- Asser Ntinda is the former editor-in-chief of Namibia Today, a former weekly official organ of Swapo.