Rural fertility rises as national rate stalls - census

Rural women have an average of five children each, compared with three among women in urban areas, according to 2023 census findings.

Rural fertility increased over the past 12 years, while the national fertility rate remained unchanged at 3.9 children per woman, the findings show.

The figures are contained in the 2023 Population and Housing Census thematic reports presented by Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) statistician-general Alex Shimuafeni last week.

The report stated that the rural fertility rate increased from 4.6 children per woman in 2011 to five in 2023. The urban rate remained at 3.2, while the national average held steady at 3.9 children per woman.

Shimuafeni presented four thematic reports covering fertility, mortality, migration and population projections, providing a picture of how Namibia’s population is changing and how it could develop over the next three decades.

The reports show that women are increasingly having children later in life, women live almost nine years longer than men, and fewer children are dying before their fifth birthday.

Rural-urban fertility gap widens

Namibia’s population could also reach about 5.26 million by 2053 under the NSA’s medium-growth projection.

Kavango West recorded the highest fertility rate at 5.5 children per woman, followed by Ohangwena and Omaheke at 5.2 each.

Khomas recorded the lowest rate at 2.7 children per woman, followed by Erongo at three and Oshana at 3.2.

Nationally, fertility has declined significantly over the past three decades, from 6.1 children per woman in 1991 to 4.1 in 2001 and 3.9 in 2011. However, the decline stalled between 2011 and 2023.

Rural fertility fell from 6.8 children per woman in 1991 to 4.6 in 2001. It remained at 4.6 in 2011 before increasing to five in 2023.

Urban fertility, meanwhile, declined from 4.7 children per woman in 1991 to 3.2 in 2011 and remained unchanged at that level in 2023.

Child deaths decline

Births among teenagers have also declined. In 2023, there were about 62 births for every 1 000 girls and young women aged 15 to 19, compared with 76 in 2001 and about 68 in 2011.

Despite the decline, births among this age group contributed about 10% to the national fertility rate, with the highest contribution recorded in Kavango West.

The infant mortality report shows that deaths among babies younger than one year fell from 67 per 1 000 live births in 1991 to 26.2 in 2023. Deaths among children before their fifth birthday declined from 87 to about 39 per 1 000 live births over the same period.

However, disparities remain between rural and urban areas. Rural areas recorded 29.3 infant deaths per 1 000 live births, compared with 23 in urban areas.

Hardap recorded the highest infant mortality rate at 42.6 deaths per 1 000 live births, followed by Omaheke at 35.7, while Khomas recorded the lowest rate at 19.4.

The national maternal mortality figure stood at about 193 deaths per 100 000 live births in 2023, down from 225 in 1992.

Omaheke recorded the highest figure at approximately 543 deaths per 100 000 live births, followed by Hardap at about 393. Erongo recorded the lowest at about 100.

Speaking at the launch of the reports, deputy minister of health Suzan Ndjaleka said the findings would help authorities anticipate demand for health services and deploy mobile clinics and health workers before communities come under severe pressure.

“When settlements expand rapidly without infrastructure, the health risks, from sanitation to disease outbreaks, multiply,” Ndjaleka said.

UNFPA Namibia representative Erika Goldson said information on birth patterns could help government improve family planning and sexual and reproductive health services for young people, as well as care for mothers and newborn babies.