Virus to undo decade of progress in Africa
Virus to undo decade of progress in Africa

Virus to undo decade of progress in Africa

Jo-Mare Duddy Booysen
The coronavirus pandemic could set back incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa by a decade as weak oil prices, a tourism standstill and business lockdowns shrink the region's economy 3.2% in 2020, an IMF official has said.

The International Monetary Fund in its updated outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa on Monday pegged in growth of -6.0% for Namibia this year.

Activity in the region is expected to recover in 2021, but countries first will have to get through a year in which many will see tepid growth at best, while those that rely on commodities or tourism will suffer severe declines.

"It is a worrisome picture, really, in terms of the economic outlook, and really reflects the continuing weak global economic environment that countries in the region face," Africa director for the International Monetary Fund, Abebe Aemro Selassie, told AFP.

The continent is grappling with more than 383 000 cases of coronavirus, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.

Economies

With oil prices low globally, crude exporters will be badly hit. Nigeria is expected to shrink by 5.4% and Angola by 4.0%, its fifth straight year of economic contraction.

Flight bans and health concerns mean less tourists, and the IMF expects the Seychelles to shrink by 13.8% in 2020 and Mauritius by 12.2%.

Even diversified economies will suffer. Ethiopia's GDP is expected to grow just 1.9% in fiscal year 2020 then "stall completely" the following year, the IMF said.

South Africa, the continent's most-industrialised economy - which also has the highest number of recorded coronavirus infections - will contract 8.0% in 2020 due to lockdowns imposed to curb the virus, a risk Abebe said countries across the continent face.

"Unfortunately, the region remains still on the exponential side of how the pandemic is playing out in the vast majority of countries," he said.

"Absent vigilance, there's no reason why we cannot expect the same kind of dynamics that we've seen elsewhere in terms of the pandemic."

Aid, tension

The Washington-based crisis lender has moved quickly to roll out support programs to help African economies weather the downturn, with aid totalling up to US$10 billion over the last two months or so, and more to be announced, Abebe said.

Africa also stands to benefit from debt relief agreed to in April by the G20 representing the world's largest economies.

There is "strong willingness to provide" the relief and about 25 countries have applied, though details are still being discussed with some creditors, Abebe said.

The world's poorest continent is expected to rebound in 2021 with growth in Sub-Saharan Africa of 3.4%, assuming lockdowns have eased and the pandemic does not get markedly worse with a second wave of infections.

But given the tentative nature of the "phase one" trade deal between the United States and China, and Washington's threat of new taxes on European goods amid a trade feud, Abebe warned that wider tensions could threaten Africa's recovery.

"A tense geopolitical environment, one which leads to adverse trade outcomes, growth outcomes, economic outcomes, will also have some spillover on the region." – Own report and Nampa/AFP

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Namibian Sun 2024-03-28

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Katima Mulilo: 19° | 37° Rundu: 17° | 33° Eenhana: 18° | 33° Oshakati: 20° | 31° Ruacana: 19° | 33° Tsumeb: 17° | 29° Otjiwarongo: 16° | 28° Omaruru: 18° | 31° Windhoek: 17° | 28° Gobabis: 17° | 28° Henties Bay: 16° | 19° Wind speed: 24km/h, Wind direction: S, Low tide: 10:54, High tide: 04:57, Low Tide: 22:58, High tide: 17:16 Swakopmund: 15° | 17° Wind speed: 29km/h, Wind direction: SW, Low tide: 10:52, High tide: 04:55, Low Tide: 22:56, High tide: 17:14 Walvis Bay: 16° | 22° Wind speed: 33km/h, Wind direction: SW, Low tide: 10:52, High tide: 04:54, Low Tide: 22:56, High tide: 17:13 Rehoboth: 18° | 29° Mariental: 22° | 32° Keetmanshoop: 21° | 34° Aranos: 21° | 31° Lüderitz: 15° | 29° Ariamsvlei: 23° | 34° Oranjemund: 15° | 21° Luanda: 27° | 30° Gaborone: 20° | 32° Lubumbashi: 17° | 24° Mbabane: 15° | 23° Maseru: 12° | 28° Antananarivo: 16° | 27° Lilongwe: 17° | 29° Maputo: 20° | 28° Windhoek: 17° | 28° Cape Town: 17° | 23° Durban: 21° | 25° Johannesburg: 18° | 28° Dar es Salaam: 26° | 32° Lusaka: 18° | 30° Harare: 15° | 31° Currency: GBP to NAD 23.93 | EUR to NAD 20.49 | CNY to NAD 2.63 | USD to NAD 18.99 | DZD to NAD 0.14 | AOA to NAD 0.02 | BWP to NAD 1.33 | EGP to NAD 0.39 | KES to NAD 0.14 | NGN to NAD 0.01 | ZMW to NAD 0.74 | ZWL to NAD 0.04 | BRL to NAD 3.8 | RUB to NAD 0.2 | INR to NAD 0.23 | USD to DZD 134.1 | USD to AOA 832.63 | USD to BWP 13.71 | USD to EGP 47.3 | USD to KES 130.98 | USD to NGN 1415.13 | USD to ZAR 18.99 | USD to ZMW 24.97 | USD to ZWL 321 | Stock Exchange: JSE All Share Index 73909.5 Up +0.41% | Namibian Stock Exchange (NSX) Overall Index 1516.02 Down -0.13% | Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) MASI 12981.98 Up +0.34% | Egyptian Exchange (EGX) 30 Index 28224.37 Down -2.87% | Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) DCI Same 0 | NSX: MTC 7.75 SAME | Anirep 8.99 SAME | Capricorn Investment group 17.34 SAME | FirstRand Namibia Ltd 49 DOWN 0.50% | Letshego Holdings (Namibia) Ltd 4.1 UP 2.50% | Namibia Asset Management Ltd 0.7 SAME | Namibia Breweries Ltd 31.49 UP 0.03% | Nictus Holdings - Nam 2.22 SAME | Oryx Properties Ltd 12.1 UP 1.70% | Paratus Namibia Holdings 11.99 SAME | SBN Holdings 8.45 SAME | Trustco Group Holdings Ltd 0.48 SAME | B2Gold Corporation 47.34 DOWN 1.50% | Local Index closed 677.62 UP 0.12% | Overall Index closed 1534.6 DOWN 0.05% | Osino Resources Corp 19.47 DOWN 2.41% | Commodities: Gold US$ 2 208.02/OZ UP +0.79% | Copper US$ 3.97/lb DOWN -0.0034 | Zinc US$ 2 444.40/T DOWN -0.49% | Brent Crude Oil US$ 87.34/BBP UP +1.11% | Platinum US$ 899.07/OZ UP +0.47% Sport results: Weather: Katima Mulilo: 19° | 37° Rundu: 17° | 33° Eenhana: 18° | 33° Oshakati: 20° | 31° Ruacana: 19° | 33° Tsumeb: 17° | 29° Otjiwarongo: 16° | 28° Omaruru: 18° | 31° Windhoek: 17° | 28° Gobabis: 17° | 28° Henties Bay: 16° | 19° Wind speed: 24km/h, Wind direction: S, Low tide: 10:54, High tide: 04:57, Low Tide: 22:58, High tide: 17:16 Swakopmund: 15° | 17° Wind speed: 29km/h, Wind direction: SW, Low tide: 10:52, High tide: 04:55, Low Tide: 22:56, High tide: 17:14 Walvis Bay: 16° | 22° Wind speed: 33km/h, Wind direction: SW, Low tide: 10:52, High tide: 04:54, Low Tide: 22:56, High tide: 17:13 Rehoboth: 18° | 29° Mariental: 22° | 32° Keetmanshoop: 21° | 34° Aranos: 21° | 31° Lüderitz: 15° | 29° Ariamsvlei: 23° | 34° Oranjemund: 15° | 21° Luanda: 27° | 30° Gaborone: 20° | 32° Lubumbashi: 17° | 24° Mbabane: 15° | 23° Maseru: 12° | 28° Antananarivo: 16° | 27° Lilongwe: 17° | 29° Maputo: 20° | 28° Windhoek: 17° | 28° Cape Town: 17° | 23° Durban: 21° | 25° Johannesburg: 18° | 28° Dar es Salaam: 26° | 32° Lusaka: 18° | 30° Harare: 15° | 31° Economic Indicators: Currency: GBP to NAD 23.93 | EUR to NAD 20.49 | CNY to NAD 2.63 | USD to NAD 18.99 | DZD to NAD 0.14 | AOA to NAD 0.02 | BWP to NAD 1.33 | EGP to NAD 0.39 | KES to NAD 0.14 | NGN to NAD 0.01 | ZMW to NAD 0.74 | ZWL to NAD 0.04 | BRL to NAD 3.8 | RUB to NAD 0.2 | INR to NAD 0.23 | USD to DZD 134.1 | USD to AOA 832.63 | USD to BWP 13.71 | USD to EGP 47.3 | USD to KES 130.98 | USD to NGN 1415.13 | USD to ZAR 18.99 | USD to ZMW 24.97 | USD to ZWL 321 | Stock Exchange: JSE All Share Index 73909.5 Up +0.41% | Namibian Stock Exchange (NSX) Overall Index 1516.02 Down -0.13% | Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) MASI 12981.98 Up +0.34% | Egyptian Exchange (EGX) 30 Index 28224.37 Down -2.87% | Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) DCI Same 0 | NSX: MTC 7.75 SAME | Anirep 8.99 SAME | Capricorn Investment group 17.34 SAME | FirstRand Namibia Ltd 49 DOWN 0.50% | Letshego Holdings (Namibia) Ltd 4.1 UP 2.50% | Namibia Asset Management Ltd 0.7 SAME | Namibia Breweries Ltd 31.49 UP 0.03% | Nictus Holdings - Nam 2.22 SAME | Oryx Properties Ltd 12.1 UP 1.70% | Paratus Namibia Holdings 11.99 SAME | SBN Holdings 8.45 SAME | Trustco Group Holdings Ltd 0.48 SAME | B2Gold Corporation 47.34 DOWN 1.50% | Local Index closed 677.62 UP 0.12% | Overall Index closed 1534.6 DOWN 0.05% | Osino Resources Corp 19.47 DOWN 2.41% | Commodities: Gold US$ 2 208.02/OZ UP +0.79% | Copper US$ 3.97/lb DOWN -0.0034 | Zinc US$ 2 444.40/T DOWN -0.49% | Brent Crude Oil US$ 87.34/BBP UP +1.11% | Platinum US$ 899.07/OZ UP +0.47%