Swapo succession battle

Political analysts are confident Swapo acting president Hage Geingob is likely to prevail as the victor at the highly-anticipated ruling party congress despite strong opposition to his candidacy.

About 600 delegates from Swapo branches, wings and affiliates will convene in Windhoek this November to elect a new leadership for the next five years.

The Swapo vote is interesting because it will be the first time an incumbent state president contests for the presidency of the party.

There is an all-out battle for the control and soul of the ruling party. Unlike his predecessor Hifikepunye Pohamba, who was a long-serving Swapo vice-president and founding president Sam Nujoma's hand-picked candidate successor, Geingob finds himself in a difficult situation as the elective congress looms large.

Although playing a key role in ensuring that Geingob was elected Swapo vice-president at the 2012 congress, Pohamba is yet to declare openly his support for Geingob, while the iconic Nujoma has seemingly also elected to play his cards close to his chest.

Geingob was elected unopposed as Swapo vice-president in 2007 at the same congress, which also confirmed Pohamba as the Swapo president following Nujoma's retirement.



Political comeback

Five years later Geingob found himself facing competition for the vice-presidency of the party but triumphed over Jerry Ekandjo and Pendukeni Iivula-Ithana to become the Swapo presidential candidate during the 2014 national elections.

Political commentator Nico Horn believes Geingob will secure the plum position of Swapo president at the congress - a victory that will present a new dawn for the ruling party's politics.

According to Horn, after this year's congress Geingob will eventually be his “own man”, the “one he promised the nation during his presidential campaign in 2014”.

“He will not be who he needs to be. He will be less dependent on party structures,” said Horn.

Geingob already enjoys support from the Swapo Party Elders Council, youth wing, several regions, while there appear to be divided support for him within the circles of the Swapo Party Women's Council.

The names of Ekandjo and Helmuth Angula have been linked to the presidential race, while ministers Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, Pendukeni Iivula-Ithana, Nahas Angula and the party's current sectary-general Nangolo Mbumba have been touted as potential candidates for the vice-presidency.





For the secretary-general post, the likes of Albert Kawana and Sophia Shaningwa are likely to stand, according to Swapo insiders.

There has also been a mention of education minister Katrina Hanse-Himarwa - a staunch Geingob supporter – for either the secretary-general or deputy secretary-general post.



'Detractors'

Those opposed to a Geingob presidency such as Oshikoto regional coordinator Armas Amukwiyu also appear to be making strides in positioning their candidates as congress delegates.

A case in point is the recent Khomas Region special gathering which elected four candidates to represent it at congress.

The four included prominent businessman Desmond Amunyela, Mirjam Onesmus, John Elago and Nambata Angula, who are not considered Geingob supporters.

Political commentator Ndumba J Kamwanyah agreed that it will be difficult for anyone to successfully oppose Geingob even though there is a possibility of nominations from the floor. He, however, pointed out that Geingob's headache should not be whether he will land the party's presidency but the performance of his running mates for the vice-president, secretary-general and deputy secretary-general positions.

Kamwanyah added that to sway things into his favour he would have to extend an olive branch to his so-called detractors.

“But I do not see a sign of peace offering coming from him. In fact, I thought when he was elected he would be above the fray, but he is not. He is associated with camps and he should leave that for the people below him,” said Kamwanyah.



'Nasty surprises'

Another commentator, Hoze Riruako, questioned the “audacity” of some party members to want to contest an incumbent president, saying it would be a futile exercise.

The focus, Riruako noted, must instead be on the candidates vying for the vice-presidency, secretary-general and deputy secretary-general positions.



According to him, the party must early on identify candidates for these positions to avoid nasty surprises.



“Many of the delegates would want to sway these positions into their favour. Therefore it is important to make sure nominations will not be made from the floor, because candidates must be scrutinised to ensure they have the credentials that are important for these positions,” he said.



“It is important although there are different opinions and different candidates at the congress, members must present themselves in an orderly manner. It has always been Swapo's tradition to caucus beforehand and come out united,” he said.

However, divisions in the party are concerning to Riruako.

“We may not see a new political party emerging after this congress but those that feel they have lost out will want to disrupt the party.”



Anyone must stand

Meanwhile, Politburo member Kazenambo Kazenambo has warned that the congress is not an “appointment” event, but an election of which the outcome is not yet known.

“We are going to an elective congress, not an appointment congress,” he said.

Kazenambo, who has in the past described Geingob's leadership style as bullish, this week stressed that people are “elected” to positions and not automatically “appointed”.

According to Kazenambo, every party member wishing to stand for a position in the party must campaign and present their case and convince the voters why they are the best candidates.

“Let us move away from personalities and look at policy issues. What are these leaders' stances on the genocide issues which has caused a lot of consternation? What are their positions on ancestral land and economic empowerment?” he urged.

Kazenambo also rejected claims that factions will damage the party, saying it is a democratic phenomenon.

“We are a diverse society, shaped by diverse issues and will therefore have diverse interests. Factions are normal,” he emphasised.



JEMIMA BEUKES