Swapo is on trial

JEMIMA BEUKES Local analysts believe Swapo is knee-deep in trouble, in terms of the land issue, and is scrambling to regain control, ahead of next week’s much-anticipated second national land conference.Commentator Ndumba Kamwanyah said Swapo is “now on trial” and will be held accountable for its successive governments’ failed land reform policy.“This failure happened on the watch of successive Swapo-led governments, presidents and ministers from the very same party since independence.“The party finds itself cornered against the wall because it cannot explain itself on the land issue nor does the party seem to have a clear position,” Kamwanyah said. “What we are seeing is a party that’s in reaction mode rather than proactive as far as the land issue is concerned.”Swapo secretary-general Sophia Shaningwa last week called for a caucus with the party’s MPs and regional governors that would have taken place on Monday.However, the meeting was postponed after a poor turnout.Kamwanyah said Swapo’s caucus call shows the party is scrambling for a common position ahead of the start of the five-day land indaba this coming Monday.“The realisation that some governors and regional party functionaries mighty contradict the government’s position is what made Swapo scramble to ensure that the party has a common position,” he said.Shaningwa’s decision to call for a caucus has been criticised by social media keyboard warriors, who claimed it is trying to gag its party members ahead of the land conference.Swapo Party Youth League (SPYL) secretary Ephraim Nekongo believes otherwise.“I know people say we are brainwashed, but even so, let there be a united front. When we go to the land conference we should go there as a party,” Nekongo said.He said the country finds itself in a land crisis that should be addressed with caution.“We are in a crisis. We came from exile and had the first land conference. One can agree that our leaders had to make some compromises,” he said. “But the fact remains government is now committed and the fact that the land conference is taking place is commendable and proof that government wants to redress the land challenges.” Political commentator Frederico Links believes the party’s decision to call its members to a meeting shows it never planned for it (the land conference) to get this far.He also believes the party wants to stage-manage the conference for as long as possible and everyone will be told to stick to one message and not go off the rails.The land conference has already been postponed twice over the years.“They did not want to do this; they really want to do it only after next year’s election, if they were going to do it. They are in a position where they actually have to do something now,” Links said. AtonementThere seems to be mixed views on how the outcome of land conference will affect the ruling party’s performance during next year’s general elections.Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) director Graham Hopwood does not see Swapo’s failure to deliver land to its electorate over the years as a game-changer.“If voters are to move away from Swapo, it is more likely that the deteriorating state of the economy and the associated level of unemployment will be the key factors.“However, it is possible that opposition parties, by emphasising both rural and urban land issues, could still place the land issue centre stage next year.“This depends on whether the opposition can be effective campaigners - particularly the new party, the LPM. Historically, looking at past elections, the opposition have failed to raise issues that could dent Swapo's loyal voter base,” Hopwood said.He also does not think the government sees the land conference as a move to limit any electoral fallout; hence the very strong government presence on the draft invitation list.According to Hopwood, this approach does have risks, as it could lead to critics saying the land indaba lacks credibility, as independent voices will not be able to air their concerns, or will be simply drowned out by Swapo voices promoting pre-agreed positions.Links, too, doubts that Swapo will perform poorly at the polls in next year’s elections.“Of course many things can happen before now and then, but if the trend holds true until next November, then I do not see Swapo losing that much support. But I do foresee it having an effect on the 2025 elections.”

Swapo is on trial

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Namibian Sun 2025-11-12

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Swapo is on trial

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Namibian Sun 2025-11-12

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