State House race no cakewalk

The 2019 presidential race will not be an easy ride, as the winner from the 11 candidates must secure a 50+1% of the vote.

In countries like neighbouring Zambia, a simple majority is enough to make one president.

President Hage Geingob of the ruling party Swapo is up against 10 other aspirants for the position he currently holds.

Others include McHenry Venaani of official opposition Popular Democratic Movement (PDM), independent candidate Panduleni Itula and former //Karas governor Bernadus Swartbooi.



Swartbooi left Swapo after a fallout with Geingob, while Itula firmly holds onto his Swapo membership, amidst heightened calls to have him expelled.

The Electoral Act stipulates that the overall winner of the presidential race must secure 50+1% of the vote. Geingob created history in 2014 by bagging an impressive 87% in the presidential race.

Behind him was Venaani with a paltry 5%.

Also challenging for the state presidency next month are Mike Kavekotora (Rally for Democracy and Progress), Nudo president Esther Utjiua Muinjangue, All People's Party (APP) leader Ignatius Shixwameni and United Democratic Front (UDF) leader Apius Auchab.

Dr Tangeni Iijambo of Swanu, Namibian Economic Freedom Fighters (NEFF)'s Epafrans Mukwiilongo and the Republican Party's Henk Mudge are also in the race. According to political commentator Ndumba Kamwanyah, chances do exist that Namibia may not have an outright winner after next month's presidential election and may see a second run-off.

“The votes in the south may go to Swartbooi. I do not know where the Kavango votes will go, but Itula will also take some votes and there is a possibility that we may end up without a (50+1%) winner,” he said.

Kamwanyah, however, cautioned that Namibian voters are very unpredictable and may decide to rally behind Swapo and its official candidate.

He also believes that Itula will find it difficult to make inroads in rural areas, especially among Oshiwambo-speakers in the north, where voters are committed to the ruling party and Geingob.

“We are dealing here with name recognition and everybody knows President Geingob's name. Itula, on the other hand, is known amongst the educated and on social media, but deep in the rural areas he may have a problem,” Kamwanyah said.

Social commentator Frederico Links, however, does not expect many surprises to pop up during next month's poll.

According to him, the feeling on the street is that Namibians do not believe Geingob's opponents have much change to offer.

“I do not know if he will hit that 87% again; I suspect not, but he should still outperform all the rest. I do not see any of the other contenders really making any sort of inroads.

“There had been furore around the late Hidipo Hamutenya's decision to try to run for president in 2009 and it did not go well.

“So I suspect that it will be the same story this time around. These contenders will just fizzle out and there won't be much support for them at the end of the day,” Links said.

Social commentator Rakkel Andreas is not convinced that voters will be dramatically swayed by Geingob's opponents, because Namibians still believe the party and its president are the same thing.

“I do not see the independent candidate as a threat to the president's support base, as I view many Swapo supporters as loyal to the party, and at the moment the party has not matured enough to separate the man from itself.

“As it stands, the president is the party and the party is the president. Voting for the independent candidate, who is a member of Swapo but not the official Swapo presidential candidate, is still viewed as voting for the opposition,” she said.

Andreas believes that Geingob will again receive votes from non-Swapo supporters, because he is still popular in some respects.

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JEMIMA BEUKES