Bird flu is back

Good rains have been received in many of the areas in the SADC region that were affected by the severe El Niño induced drought in past years.

These areas include much of Botswana, Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique, Swaziland and the northern half of South Africa, where normal to above-normal rains were received.

Further north-west, in much of Angola, Zambia, and southern DRC, rains were generally normal to slightly below normal.

Although the total rains received in many areas were slightly below normal, they were likely generally sufficient to allow crop development, as suggested by crop models, particularly given the current early stage of the crop.

The north-eastern parts of the region, in particular, most of Tanzania, and parts of northern Mozambique, have received well below average rainfall so far this season, with negative impacts.

The severity of the rainfall deficit is such that in many areas the planting rains have been delayed by 40 days or more. In addition, the south-western parts of the region have also received well below average rainfall. These include parts of south-western South Africa, western Namibia and south-western Angola.

Late November through early January also saw extremely high temperatures in many of the same areas, which resulted in higher water loss through evaporation, as greater potential for heat stress to both crops and livestock.

The rains to date have provided good potential crop production outcomes in many of the southern parts of the region.

Water balance models running the water requirements satisfaction index (WRSI) suggest that higher than normal percentage of the water requirements of cereal crops will be met this season, if normal rains fall for the remainder of the season.

In contrast, below average water-related crop performance is expected in south-eastern South Africa, parts of northern Namibia, and parts of Angola.

This is primarily due to the nature of the rainfall patterns that have occurred since the beginning of the season.

Vegetation conditions have improved vastly since November, in response to the moderate to high rains that have been received in many areas. The improved rains this season have helped recovery, but many areas are still showing below average vegetation conditions.

Livestock conditions remain poor in some of the areas that were more severely affected by drought last season, including parts of Zimbabwe and South Africa, and improvement is likely to take several months, if pasture conditions keep improving over the remainder of the season. In parts of South Africa, livestock mortality is still being reported.

In Zimbabwe, livestock have been washed away by floods in some areas due to excessive rains.

Crop conditions are mixed across the region. The north-eastern half of South Africa has been receiving good rains for much of the growing season, while the south-western half has received below average rainfall and experienced excessively high temperatures.

Consequently, crop conditions in the east have been reportedly performing better than those in the western half. Rainfall in Zambia has been generally good, however an infestation of armyworm have affected most districts in the country. Replanting will be required in over 68 000 ha.

Maize crops planted as late as midJanuary though, generally have lower yield potential and higher risk of cessation of rains before crops reach maturity. Zimbabwe has received large amounts of rainfall this season, good for crop development in most areas, but flooding, collapse of dams, and washing away of crops has been reported in some areas.

Fertilizer shortages have been reported, which, together with incessant rains that have been falling, have resulted in crops being affected by nitrogen deficiency. The continuing rains have also limited weeding operations. This situation is likely to negatively impact harvests.

Zambia was affected by a severe outbreak of the Fall Armyworm. This pest is new to the southern African region, differing from the African Armyworm that has often affected the region in the past, and is reportedly more difficult to control.

Close to 130 000 ha planted to maize had been affected, being approximately 10% of the planted area. With 94% of the country's districts affected in varying degrees, including several districts bordering Zambia's eight neighbours in the SADC region, vigilant region-wide monitoring activities are required.

The Fall Armyworm was also reported recently as having affected several provinces in Zimbabwe, although information on the number of hectares affected was not yet available. Namibia and South Africa have also reported outbreaks of the Fall Armyworm.

STAFF REPORTER