Graff-1: ‘Incredibly promising development’

Jo-Maré Duddy – Should the offshore oil discovery at the Graff-1 well prove to be commercially viable, it could pump as much US$15 billion into Namibia in the future and shift the trajectory of the economy over the near and long term.In an “Initial Thoughts” report on Shell, QatarEnergy and Namcor’s announcement that a working petroleum system and light oil was found at Graff-1, Cirrus Capital on Monday described the discovery as “an incredibly promising development for Namibia”.The analysts, however, highlighted two “buts”: Firstly, for the project to be developed into a fully-blown oil producing well, it will have to be commercially viable. Simply put, it will have to be profitable. Once the viability has been confirmed, Namibia faces its next hurdle – infrastructure, currently non-existent, will be required for extraction and export.Both of the above factors mean Namibians will have to be patient to reap the benefits of Graff-1, if any.TIME-CONSUMING NEXT PHASEState-owned National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia (Namcor) on Friday said light oil was discovered at two reservoirs at Graff-1 in the offshore Orange Basin, about 270 km from Oranjemund. Namcor holds a 10%-interest in the petroleum exploration license (PEL 39) in Block 2913A, while Shell and QatarEnergy each has a stake of 45%.At this stage, there are no indications as to size, quality or value of the discovery. The next phase requires additional laboratory work and exploration drilling.“These processes will take at least several months, and very possibly up to a year,” Cirrus said. “If the find proves commercially viable, it will take upwards of five years to see any production,” the analysts added.The report quoted IHS Markit suggesting that a minimum viable field size of 250 million barrels (MMBbls) is necessary for a commercial find given the depth, for both the Graff-1 and Venus-1 wells. BILLION-DOLLAR DREAMAccording to Cirrus: “The implications of a commercially viable resource are substantial, sufficient to shift the trajectory of the Namibian economy over the near and long term.”The potential revenues are highly dependent on prevailing oil prices and the recoverable volumes, they pointed out. “Even the minimum viable find at a relatively weak price of US$60/bbl could see US$15 billion in potential revenues over its lifetime. For perspective, Namibia’s total GDP [gross domestic product] in 2021 was approximately US$11.5 billion.” At current exchange rates, Graff-1 could pump more than N$200 billion into the economy.FAST-TRACKINGNamibia aims to fast track the development of its first oilfield to have production by 2026 following a significant offshore discovery by Shell, a senior energy official told Reuters on Monday."If we do this within the next four years that will be excellent for us, so as the Namibian government we have pledged our commitment to the joint venture team to walk hand-in-hand with them ... to ensure we expedite the field development so that we can produce as quickly as possible," Maggy Shino, petroleum commissioner at the ministry of mines and energy, said.Shino said it was too early to provide exact volumes of oil encountered at the Graff-1 well or whether the new discovery was sufficient to be a standalone project or will require further exploration in the area."Give us enough time and by May, June, we be able to have enough data accessed to be able to confidently let you know about the quantity we are talking about here," she said.WIDE REACTIONOnline news sites have been abuzz with the Graff-1 discovery during the past week.“The resource is large, the unit cost for producing in Namibia should not be too high, and I am confident Shell has the skill set and technology to operate this field in a low-carbon environment,” NJ Ayuk, the executive chairman of the African Energy Chamber, told African Business.Energy Voice quoted Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, Qatar’s minister of state for energy affairs, as well as the president and CEO of QatarEnergy, as saying: “We are encouraged by the Graff-1 well results, which enhance the potential of our exploration acreage in Namibia’s offshore.”Jeremy Asher, the CEO of Tower Resources, told Proactive Investors: "We are delighted by the Graff-1 discovery, for the Republic of Namibia and our partners at Namcor, and also for the greater confidence that this discovery gives us in our own Namibian blocks.”The Market Herald spoke to Barry Rushworth, the technical director of Pancontinental Energy, who said: “It opens a new chapter in international oil exploration and development. Pancontinental’s very large Saturn turbidite complex in PEL 87 is on-trend to the Graff discovery.”

Graff-1: ‘Incredibly promising development’

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Namibian Sun 2026-11-03

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Graff-1: ‘Incredibly promising development’

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Namibian Sun 2026-11-03

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