Food insecure tally out by July
Details on the number of food insecure people in Namibia are expected to be available by July, following a government-led vulnerability assessment.
In consideration of the expected decrease in agricultural production this year, food security conditions in Namibia are likely to worsen significantly for communal farming households, whose own cereal production is a critical source of food.
According to a food security update report by the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), the most affected areas in Namibia will be the Hardap, Erongo, //Karas, Kunene, Omaheke and Otjozondjupa regions, which have experienced ongoing drought conditions.
The report says the current higher food prices are also expected to further impede household access to food supplies, particularly as their dependence on market supplies grows.
It said harvesting of the 2019 main season cereal crops will begin in June and a significant decline in cereal production is forecast in Namibia for this year.
The unfavourable production prospects reflect substantial rainfall deficits experienced since the start of the cropping season in November 2018.
In two of the main cereal-producing regions, Omusati and Oshikoto, cumulative rainfall between November 2018 and March 2019 was over two-thirds below the average. “Pertinently, in addition to having a temporally erratic distribution that included multiple decades of no precipitation, the cumulative rainfall was insufficient to satisfy crop water requirements that would have enabled the maize crop to attain near-average yields,” the report said.
Based on a recently conducted government crop assessment, 2019 cereal production is forecast at 72 000 tonnes, 53% below the previous year and 35% down when compared to the preceding five-year average.
The report said unfavourable weather conditions have also adversely impacted grazing resources, particularly pastures in the southern and north-western parts of the country that experienced dry weather conditions in the previous season.
“Livestock body conditions throughout most of the country have deteriorated and mortality rates are reported to be high.”
Preliminary livestock estimates indicate that a total of 30 816 cattle died in Namibia due to drought from October 2018 to March 2019. A further 24 598 goats, 8 248 sheep, 518 donkeys and 296 horses died during the period.
In consideration of the expected decline in cereal production, cereal imports in the 2019/20 marketing year (May/April) are predicted to rise to an above-average level of 300 000 tonnes - about 40 000 tonnes higher than the estimated volume imported in the previous marketing year. Furthermore, as of March this year, average prices of maize meal were slightly higher on a yearly basis, mostly due to elevated prices in South Africa, which is the main source of imported cereals. There are also expectations of a reduced cereal output in 2019 in the neighbouring country.
“The annual food inflation rate, a sub-component of the national consumer price index, was estimated at 6% in March 2019, compared to a rate of 3% registered a year earlier,” the report added.
ELLANIE SMIT
In consideration of the expected decrease in agricultural production this year, food security conditions in Namibia are likely to worsen significantly for communal farming households, whose own cereal production is a critical source of food.
According to a food security update report by the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), the most affected areas in Namibia will be the Hardap, Erongo, //Karas, Kunene, Omaheke and Otjozondjupa regions, which have experienced ongoing drought conditions.
The report says the current higher food prices are also expected to further impede household access to food supplies, particularly as their dependence on market supplies grows.
It said harvesting of the 2019 main season cereal crops will begin in June and a significant decline in cereal production is forecast in Namibia for this year.
The unfavourable production prospects reflect substantial rainfall deficits experienced since the start of the cropping season in November 2018.
In two of the main cereal-producing regions, Omusati and Oshikoto, cumulative rainfall between November 2018 and March 2019 was over two-thirds below the average. “Pertinently, in addition to having a temporally erratic distribution that included multiple decades of no precipitation, the cumulative rainfall was insufficient to satisfy crop water requirements that would have enabled the maize crop to attain near-average yields,” the report said.
Based on a recently conducted government crop assessment, 2019 cereal production is forecast at 72 000 tonnes, 53% below the previous year and 35% down when compared to the preceding five-year average.
The report said unfavourable weather conditions have also adversely impacted grazing resources, particularly pastures in the southern and north-western parts of the country that experienced dry weather conditions in the previous season.
“Livestock body conditions throughout most of the country have deteriorated and mortality rates are reported to be high.”
Preliminary livestock estimates indicate that a total of 30 816 cattle died in Namibia due to drought from October 2018 to March 2019. A further 24 598 goats, 8 248 sheep, 518 donkeys and 296 horses died during the period.
In consideration of the expected decline in cereal production, cereal imports in the 2019/20 marketing year (May/April) are predicted to rise to an above-average level of 300 000 tonnes - about 40 000 tonnes higher than the estimated volume imported in the previous marketing year. Furthermore, as of March this year, average prices of maize meal were slightly higher on a yearly basis, mostly due to elevated prices in South Africa, which is the main source of imported cereals. There are also expectations of a reduced cereal output in 2019 in the neighbouring country.
“The annual food inflation rate, a sub-component of the national consumer price index, was estimated at 6% in March 2019, compared to a rate of 3% registered a year earlier,” the report added.
ELLANIE SMIT
Comments
Namibian Sun
No comments have been left on this article