El Nino may return for 2017/18 season
At this time, models are predicting that the southern hemisphere may experience an El Nino phenomenon at the start of the next rainy season.
The chance of an El Nino in 2017 has increased in the last two weeks, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said on Tuesday, indicating a 5% chance the weather event resurfaces over the next six months.
The BOM said the eastern Pacific Ocean has warmed over the last fortnight, driving many of its climate models towards the El Nino threshold over the next six months.
An El Nino is often associated with below average rainfall and warmer, dry weather across southern hemisphere region.
El Ninos are particularly damaging to Australia, with the last one in 2015/16 - the strongest in nearly 20 years - curtailing agricultural production from one world's largest agricultural exporters.
An El Nino this year would potentially emerge as farmers in Australia plant wheat crops, Australia's largest rural export.
Should dry weather persist, production from the world's number four exporter may be stunted, providing some support to benchmark wheat prices, which remain depressed by ample global supplies.
Namibia too has been under pressure with a persistent drought leading not only to agricultural losses but also major water shortages for the capital. While the season thus far has been relatively good, the country cannot recover in one season.
According to the United States’s weather prediction service, La Nina conditions are no longer present, with slightly below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central equatorial Pacific and above-average SSTs increasing in the eastern Pacific Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system is consistent with neutral conditions.
Most models predict the continuation of the neutral state through the northern hemisphere’s summer (southern hemisphere winter). Thereafter, there are increasing odds for El Nino toward the second half of 2017 (50% chance in September-November).
NAMPA/REUTERS
The BOM said the eastern Pacific Ocean has warmed over the last fortnight, driving many of its climate models towards the El Nino threshold over the next six months.
An El Nino is often associated with below average rainfall and warmer, dry weather across southern hemisphere region.
El Ninos are particularly damaging to Australia, with the last one in 2015/16 - the strongest in nearly 20 years - curtailing agricultural production from one world's largest agricultural exporters.
An El Nino this year would potentially emerge as farmers in Australia plant wheat crops, Australia's largest rural export.
Should dry weather persist, production from the world's number four exporter may be stunted, providing some support to benchmark wheat prices, which remain depressed by ample global supplies.
Namibia too has been under pressure with a persistent drought leading not only to agricultural losses but also major water shortages for the capital. While the season thus far has been relatively good, the country cannot recover in one season.
According to the United States’s weather prediction service, La Nina conditions are no longer present, with slightly below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central equatorial Pacific and above-average SSTs increasing in the eastern Pacific Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system is consistent with neutral conditions.
Most models predict the continuation of the neutral state through the northern hemisphere’s summer (southern hemisphere winter). Thereafter, there are increasing odds for El Nino toward the second half of 2017 (50% chance in September-November).
NAMPA/REUTERS
Comments
Namibian Sun
No comments have been left on this article