Corruption - A social disease (Part 155): The corruption trend since 1998: What to expect for the following two years?

22 March 2019 | Columns

Johan Coetzee - One of the most popular indices used by investors to provide them with an indication of the level of corruption and governance in a country is the Corruption Perception Index of Transparency International (TI).

The index is compiled annually per country and rated out of 10 – with 10 being a perfect score, indicating no corruption and perfect good governance. The problem with international indices, however, is that they are simplistic and do not analyse corruption from a systemic perspective.

When analysing the TI indices for Namibia from 1998 to 2018, the trend is stable. Since 2004, the "darkest year" with a rating of 4.1 the sub-trend until 2018 has been positive, slowly but surely rising, with a rating of 5.3 in 2018. Namibia has always been one of the top five least corrupt African countries.

A rating of mostly below 5 since 2004 indicates we are mediocre, not good, not bad, just "hanging in there".

Two most likely reasons for the improvement from 5.1 to 5.3 from 2017 to 2018 are because parliament approved the Whistleblower Protection Act and the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) said lifestyle audits would be executed. However, no prosecuted cases based on lifestyle audits has yet been reported.

The ACC has never published a time-series of corruption in Namibia that could reveal the trend as indicated in the attached graphic. The institution tends to respond favourably to a small increase like in 2018, but when a major deterioration occurs, e.g. 2004, then TI has been criticised by Government as not being objective.

However, the index is based on perceptions of Namibian economists, academics and business – not foreigners - and has been executed in 175 countries for 2018.

NO REAL IMPROVEMENT

The average rating over 21 years is 4.8. For the previous 10 years, the average is 4.8. For the first decade, it is 4.9.

These trends are indications that Namibia is failing from an international perspective in tackling corruption.

The mode, meaning the value that occurs the most is 4.5 and the value that is in the middle, the median is also 4.5. These two values are more meaningful than the average, because the average is an equalisation of distributed values. Since the mode and the median are the same, it means that Namibia is 55% corrupt.

Despite mechanisms such as the ACC and the Whistleblower Protection Act, Namibia is not improving. Contributors could be an increase in corruption from pre- to post-tender and an increase in State Owned Enterprises’ (SOEs) debt and corruption. For example, N$45 billion debt of SOEs and N$90 billion net worth.

Another contributor could be an increase in mismanagement of funds by local government.

The SME Bank fraud of N$ 350 million is another disaster at central government level and the relentless rosewood export from our forests have been ongoing for years. More than 11 000 tons were exported mostly illegally during 2018.

Corruption has infected law-enforcement agencies and the private sector.

From analysing the long-term trend, it can be deduced that there is tolerance for corruption in Namibia that became part of the culture of engrained corruption. Because Namibia has not improved since 1998, it is possible to deduce that we will not improve during the year to come.

With 2019 being an election year, mismanagement of public funds will most likely increase and the private sector will continue to fund the campaigns of corrupt politicians. We can expect the same or most likely a worse rating for 2019.

Not addressing corruption amidst a world and local recession can mean that investor confidence will further deteriorate. Policy uncertainty exists about the New Equitable Economic Empowerment Framework (NEEEF), urban and commercial land issue, and the reduced credit rating by Fitch.

From interpreting the long-term trend it is possible to synthesise that Namibia is not improving. No improvement of the 2018 rating is expected over the coming two years.

If every one refuse bribes and report corruption, we can change the trend. Are you willing to do it?

[email protected]

Similar News

 

Who hurt you, Mr President?

3 days ago - 16 August 2019 | Columns

Our president seems angry. This has come to the fore more often than not during his town hall meetings, where his remarks have betrayed a...

More exposure for new artists

3 days ago - 16 August 2019 | Columns

I am not advocating for a generational divide in music, but I do feel like new and emerging artists do not get sufficient airtime on...

Your dreams deserve a chance!

6 days ago - 13 August 2019 | Columns

Ester KamatiMany individuals, the youth in particular, live their lives in a box and never get to explore. In this regard, exploration does not mean...

The importance of employee relations in a formal establishment

1 week ago - 09 August 2019 | Columns

Happy AmadhilaEmployee relations is a field used to be known as industrial relations. As a field of study it is the study of the laws,...

Have the right team

1 week ago - 09 August 2019 | Columns

Times have changed, unlike in the past when a lot of artists wanted to sign to record labels, new artists now prefer being independent. There...

Breast milk power!

1 week ago - 06 August 2019 | Columns

Almost two years after Namibian Sun reported on a plan by two medical professionals to establish the country's first breast milk bank, the initiative finally...

Proximity to power

2 weeks ago - 02 August 2019 | Columns

This week's sentencing of former education minister Katrina Hanse-Himarwa, who was ordered by Judge Christie Liebenberg to pay a fine of N$50 000 or face...

It's not meant to be easy

2 weeks ago - 02 August 2019 | Columns

[Laughs] I remember a time when I received a text message around 03:00 that casually said 'yo what's up bro'. The reason for my laughter...

National interest, not 'brotherly pleas'

2 weeks ago - 01 August 2019 | Columns

There is no doubt that China has become an essential development partner to our country. Recent investments in the mining sector have cemented this critical...

Fuel to the fire

2 weeks ago - 30 July 2019 | Columns

The level of pregnancies among teenage girls in Namibian schools can no longer be ignored by both educators and parents. It is particularly concerning when...

Latest News

Corpses rot in homes

9 hours ago | Health

Unregistered deaths, including infant mortalities, and corpses being left to rot in homes over weekends, are just some of the challenges being faced by the...

Young mom hacked to death

9 hours ago | Crime

A 23-year-old woman was brutally murdered this past Friday in Kavango West, allegedly by her long-time boyfriend, who hacked her to death with an axe...

It was tough - Tomas

9 hours ago | Sports

LIMBA MUPETAMI Namibian long-distance runners Rainhold Tomas and Alina Armas are the winners of the 19th edition of the Old Mutual Victory Race in the...

Dying for a home

9 hours ago | Opinion

Many Namibians have, and still will, die before they ever have the chance to own a home. Studies have put the housing backlog as high...

Stars revamp coaching staff

9 hours ago | Sports

African Stars have announced the appointment of Mervin Mbakera as the assistant coach to Mohamed Gargo, in place of Andrew Tjahikika.According to a media release,...

The circus continues

9 hours ago | Sports

Limba MupetamiThe Namibia Premier League (NPL) is a circus. I'm sure everyone knows that by now. Firstly, we are forced to go and watch football...

Cheetahs edge Pumas in Nelspruit...

9 hours ago | Sports

The Cheetahs overturned a halftime deficit to win 43-37 against the Pumas in their Currie Cup match at the Mbombela Stadium in Nelspruit on Saturday....

Boxers hyped for the African...

9 hours ago | Sports

The eight amateur boxers selected to represent Namibia at the 2019 African Games in Morocco are looking forward to bringing silverware back home when the...

SA athletes prepare for 50km...

9 hours ago | Sports

The 12-member SA team have entered the final stages of preparation for the International Association of Ultrarunners (IAU) 50km world championships in Brasov, Romania, as...

Load More