Agricultural season hinges on good February rain

ELLANIE SMITWINDHOEKThe delayed onset of substantial rains and build-up of below-normal soil moisture in many areas in Southern Africa led to very poor conditions for planting and early crop or pasture development.The Southern Africa Seasonal Monitor report issued by the World Food Programme says recovery is possible if rainfall continues to improve; otherwise, agricultural performance in the 2021/2022 season may be compromised.“In many areas of Malawi, northern Mozambique, southern Tanzania and in some areas in Angola-Namibia border the season has not started yet and is over five weeks late.”It says that early-season vegetation development shows significant and widespread delays across the regions where rainfall deficits have been most pronounced.“This provides clear indication of the extensive negative impacts of the early season drought described before.”The report says that given the very dry early stage of the season and prospects for a drier end of January that might signal a return to drier than average conditions, the early perspectives for the performance of the agricultural season are not very optimistic, in particular for southern Madagascar, parts of Mozambique, Tanzania, southern Angola and parts of Namibia.“Good prospects hinge on good reliable rainfall at least through February.”Next weeks criticalThe main planting season ends in January for most countries in the region, therefore the next few weeks are the last window for planting.“If the rainfall situation continues to improve in some areas, there is still possibility for agricultural performance to recover in the 2021/2022 season.”It says the first stage of Southern Africa’s 2021/22 season has been marked by much drier than average conditions across much of the region, except for South Africa, most of Botswana and southern Zimbabwe, where wetter than usual conditions dominated.“Very dry conditions have affected Madagascar, northern and central Mozambique, Tanzania, Malawi, eastern and central Zambia and central and northern Zimbabwe. Southern Angola and Namibia are also affected.”According to the report these drought situations are more extreme in northern Mozambique, southern Tanzania, Malawi and neighbouring areas of Zambia as well as Madagascar; some of these regions have received as little as 30% of the usual amounts.“These developments go counter to the predictions of most seasonal forecasts, and historical tendencies which pointed to wetter than average conditions during this period.”It says that rainfall in October to December 2021 in Southern African region have been hit by extreme drought conditions during the early part of the 2021- 2022 season (Oct-Dec 2021).During the October-December 2021 period the northern third of Mozambique, southern Tanzania, most of Malawi, southern Madagascar and the Angola-Namibia border has been the driest or second driest since 1981.Rainfall distributionThe report notes that in early January this year wetter than average conditions spread across from Angola to Zambia, most of Zimbabwe, Malawi and northern Mozambique and north and eastern Madagascar.In contrast, very dry conditions prevailed over Namibia to southern Botswana, southern Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique, north-eastern South Africa and Eswatini, in Tanzania and southwestern Madagascar.“While monthly rainfall deficits decreased across Zambia, Malawi, and parts of central and north Mozambique, conditions remain drier than average. This is particularly the case in Tanzania, southern Madagascar and Namibia and the border areas with Angola, although heavy rainfall has also been reported in north eastern Namibia since January.”The report says that for late January, forecasts point to a return to drier than average conditions across most of the region, except for southern Tanzania.The main planting season ends in January for most countries in the region, therefore the next few weeks are the last window for planting.“If the rainfall situation continues to improve in some areas, there is still possibility for agricultural performance to recover in the 2021/2022 season.”

Agricultural season hinges on good February rain

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Namibian Sun 2025-09-18

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Agricultural season hinges on good February rain

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Namibian Sun 2025-09-18

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