A political prediction

Liberation movements in Southern Africa are clinging on to power. In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) has become the epitome of corruption and maladministration. This has resulted in an embarrassing show-off in the 2016 local elections where the party lost major metros to the opposition. The party is expected to do even worse in the 2019 national elections. In Zimbabwe, Zanu-PF has reached a point of no return by staunchly endorsing a nonagerian regime that has lost touch with ordinary citizens and maintains power through terror and intimidation. In Mozambique, the ruling FRELIMO is in a constant state of battle with the opposition, RENAMO, with some predicting a major civil war if the status quo is not attended to. The MPLA in Angola recently won an election in which the result was highly contested. This is after 38 years at the looting hands of Jose Eduardo Dos Santos. It is feared that the incoming president, Joao Lourenco is just a handpicked puppet who will continue in Dos Santos' footsteps. Some liberation movements have already lost power, as is the case in Zambia and Malawi. One thing that is very clear is that the days of liberation movements are numbered. The only exclusion from this precedent is the South West Africa's Peoples Organization (SWAPO) of Namibia. While their liberation movement counterparts seem to be feeling the heat at the polls, SWAPO has been effortlessly winning each and every election with two-third majorities. The irony is that the Namibian people in fact face the same problems of poverty, inequality, government looting and corruption but they still continue to vote for SWAPO en masse. To understand this, we need to look at the history of the Namibian people. Namibia's struggle for independence was to a large extend a very passive resistance although there were a few battles between the Namibian armed forces, PLAN and SWATF. The future is nowThe majority of the population never engaged in any form of resistance against the apartheid government. This is not to say that we were handed independence on a silver platter. I am just highlighting that our struggle for independence was not as violent as our neighbouring countries. As a result of this, Namibians have adopted a laissez-fair approach in political matters post-independence. Namibians are passive people who prefer consistency over change. There is also a very large number of people who are have adopted the loyalists approach and have no interest whatsoever in supporting a party other than SWAPO. This group consist mostly of struggle veterans and their offspring. Namibia also has very weak and toothless opposition parties which lack ideological clarity and are there simply to make up the numbers. This has granted SWAPO the opportunity to rule without much opposition even in the face of growing poverty, unemployment and corruption. However, we can now see that SWAPO has started to experience the early symptoms of demise attached to liberation movements. Firstly, there is serious factionalism in the party. The elective conferences leading up to the December congresses have been mired in controversy with tribalism, favouritism and election rigging being the order of the day. The manner in which the just concluded SPYL congress was conducted also left a lot to be desired. One candidate conspired with the winning candidate by withdrawing at the last minute in order to fulfil certain agendas. A group of SPYL members have now petitioned the SWAPO leadership to declare the congress null and void. Secondly, we now have situation where there is no clear centre of power within SWAPO. The fact that the sitting president of the country is not the likewise of the party has created quite a tense and awkward atmosphere within the party. There is less than three months before the December congress and there is still no clear candidate for the presidency. Predictions of the futureThe status quo is a recipe for disaster. One thing is clear, whatever happens at the December congress will leave SWAPO more divided just like the ANC December congress of 2009 in Polokwane when Jacob Zuma was elected president of the ANC. Post December congress 2017 will witness a dark period of serious factionalism within SWAPO. As they fight amongst each other, a younger, educated and radical opposition will be born that will offer an alternative to SWAPO. This new born radical movement will attract the masses of young adults and youth that have felt no connection to the out-dated model of SWAPO politics. In my personal capacity, I predict that by 2035 or earlier, SWAPO will either be clinging on to a very small majority or be in a coalition.*Maximalliant T Katjimune is NANSO KREC Secretary for Political and Internal Affairs and a 1st year BA (Hons) (Political Studies & Sociology) student at University of Namibia (UNAM)

A political prediction

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Namibian Sun 2026-05-11

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A political prediction

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Namibian Sun 2026-05-11

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