Governance is Africa's biggest roadblock to prosperity, says RMB report
Untapped
Africa's role in the global economy is shifting rapidly, underpinned by a young population, rapid urbanisation, and accelerating digital adoption. As the continent scales renewable energy, expands intra-regional trade, and deepens capital markets, it is becoming a critical engine for future global demand, supply-chain diversification, and sustainable development. This creates both significant challenges and massive potential for growth.
RMB’s new report, titled Continent at a crossroads: Africa’s place in the world, today and tomorrow, explores this shift and outlines investment opportunities over the next decade to 2035. The white paper uses a combination of interviews, original survey responses, and external datasets to identify the trends shaping Africa’s trajectory and is designed to offer thought leadership for members of the G20 and B20 to help them set Africa on course for future prosperity.
About the report
“Africa is a paradox, with a wealth of resources, a burgeoning population, and a strategic geographic position at the intersection of global trade routes juxtaposed by a longstanding struggle with weak governance, fragmented markets, underdeveloped infrastructure, and an external dependency on aid and extractive industries. The research in our report is aimed at helping investors understand the Africa of today and make better decisions to shape the Africa of the future,” said Isaah Mhlanga, chief economist, RMB.
The report findings are derived from in-depth long-form interviews conducted with 47 highly regarded leaders from various African countries and spheres, triangulated with survey findings from a 36-question online survey made available to the public in three different languages. Nine core meta-themes shaping Africa’s trajectory were identified. Each theme is examined with reference to real-world examples and supporting data, and considered through the lens of the 2025 G20 pillars of Solidarity, Equality, and Sustainability.
Key findings
Governance and Integration: Poor governance was identified as the central constraint on Africa’s economic transformation. Conversely, regional integration is highlighted as Africa’s potential game-changer, with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) emerging as a critical pathway for scale, trade efficiency, and bargaining power in global forums.
Demographics: Africa’s demographics are both a challenge and an opportunity. The youngest and fastest-growing population in the world is a catalyst for economic growth and central to Africa’s future position in the global economy but could become a destabilising liability without adequate investment.
Technology and innovation: Technology and innovation are central to Africa’s integration into the global economy. Digital leapfrogging, often driven by the need to solve domestic problems, has become a driving force in entrepreneurial innovation. This makes African start-ups an exciting prospect for investors, with challenges that drive innovation becoming the key to economic upliftment.
Natural resources and energy transition: One area of significant opportunity is Africa’s mineral wealth and abundant natural resources. This natural capital not only underpins Africa’s development agenda but also places the continent at the centre of the global clean energy transition, where demand for its critical minerals is projected to surge as the world moves toward net zero by 2050.
Capital and fiscal space: Africa needs capital to develop, but access to international markets comes at a cost, and currency risk amplifies the problem. International aid is tapering off, and while private creditors have become more common, this is volatile during crises, which leads to capital outflows. Combined with the costs of financing debt, this means that African governments have less fiscal space for spending on crucial areas.
Sustainable development: Progress towards sustainable development is stalling. While Africa is the region least responsible for global emissions, it is also most exposed to the consequences, making climate change both an environmental and economic issue for the continent.
Geopolitics and agency: The opportunities and resources abundant in Africa have positioned the continent at the heart of global geopolitics, which is a double-edged sword. Historically, Africa has often been the object of external agendas. The challenge now is to convert renewed attention into lasting agency, which requires unity, foresight, and skilled diplomacy; otherwise, heightened interest risks reproducing dependency rather than empowerment.
Reframing Identity: Africa has historically been shaped by external forces, but this is beginning to change as Africans themselves are increasingly demanding to set the continent’s agenda. The recognition of the African Union (AU) as a permanent member of the G20 in 2023 is both a symbolic and substantive milestone. However, African agency requires not only solidarity in international forums but also a reframing of identity: from being objects of aid and extraction to being proactive shapers of the global future.
The path forward
It is impossible to accurately predict what Africa’s future looks like. The report, however, presents three potential scenarios depending on how effectively the nine pillars are addressed:
Africa rising: A vision of Africa rising to the challenge on all three G20 Pillars, with a generational expansion of well-being and productivity that will transform Africa for the better.
Striving progress: Depicts strides being made, but without reaching universal progress.
Sombre stagnation: Offers a sombre vision of what is at stake if Africa fails to leverage the current opportunities presented.
“Our intention is that this report enhances our shared understanding of this complex, fascinating and growing continent. We believe it will provide useful insights and actionable ideas to be applied to help generate prosperity, be it at the continental level, sectoral level or even an individual business. This may prove invaluable in helping to set Africa on the right course for future prosperity,” Mhlanga said.
RMB’s new report, titled Continent at a crossroads: Africa’s place in the world, today and tomorrow, explores this shift and outlines investment opportunities over the next decade to 2035. The white paper uses a combination of interviews, original survey responses, and external datasets to identify the trends shaping Africa’s trajectory and is designed to offer thought leadership for members of the G20 and B20 to help them set Africa on course for future prosperity.
About the report
“Africa is a paradox, with a wealth of resources, a burgeoning population, and a strategic geographic position at the intersection of global trade routes juxtaposed by a longstanding struggle with weak governance, fragmented markets, underdeveloped infrastructure, and an external dependency on aid and extractive industries. The research in our report is aimed at helping investors understand the Africa of today and make better decisions to shape the Africa of the future,” said Isaah Mhlanga, chief economist, RMB.
The report findings are derived from in-depth long-form interviews conducted with 47 highly regarded leaders from various African countries and spheres, triangulated with survey findings from a 36-question online survey made available to the public in three different languages. Nine core meta-themes shaping Africa’s trajectory were identified. Each theme is examined with reference to real-world examples and supporting data, and considered through the lens of the 2025 G20 pillars of Solidarity, Equality, and Sustainability.
Key findings
Governance and Integration: Poor governance was identified as the central constraint on Africa’s economic transformation. Conversely, regional integration is highlighted as Africa’s potential game-changer, with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) emerging as a critical pathway for scale, trade efficiency, and bargaining power in global forums.
Demographics: Africa’s demographics are both a challenge and an opportunity. The youngest and fastest-growing population in the world is a catalyst for economic growth and central to Africa’s future position in the global economy but could become a destabilising liability without adequate investment.
Technology and innovation: Technology and innovation are central to Africa’s integration into the global economy. Digital leapfrogging, often driven by the need to solve domestic problems, has become a driving force in entrepreneurial innovation. This makes African start-ups an exciting prospect for investors, with challenges that drive innovation becoming the key to economic upliftment.
Natural resources and energy transition: One area of significant opportunity is Africa’s mineral wealth and abundant natural resources. This natural capital not only underpins Africa’s development agenda but also places the continent at the centre of the global clean energy transition, where demand for its critical minerals is projected to surge as the world moves toward net zero by 2050.
Capital and fiscal space: Africa needs capital to develop, but access to international markets comes at a cost, and currency risk amplifies the problem. International aid is tapering off, and while private creditors have become more common, this is volatile during crises, which leads to capital outflows. Combined with the costs of financing debt, this means that African governments have less fiscal space for spending on crucial areas.
Sustainable development: Progress towards sustainable development is stalling. While Africa is the region least responsible for global emissions, it is also most exposed to the consequences, making climate change both an environmental and economic issue for the continent.
Geopolitics and agency: The opportunities and resources abundant in Africa have positioned the continent at the heart of global geopolitics, which is a double-edged sword. Historically, Africa has often been the object of external agendas. The challenge now is to convert renewed attention into lasting agency, which requires unity, foresight, and skilled diplomacy; otherwise, heightened interest risks reproducing dependency rather than empowerment.
Reframing Identity: Africa has historically been shaped by external forces, but this is beginning to change as Africans themselves are increasingly demanding to set the continent’s agenda. The recognition of the African Union (AU) as a permanent member of the G20 in 2023 is both a symbolic and substantive milestone. However, African agency requires not only solidarity in international forums but also a reframing of identity: from being objects of aid and extraction to being proactive shapers of the global future.
The path forward
It is impossible to accurately predict what Africa’s future looks like. The report, however, presents three potential scenarios depending on how effectively the nine pillars are addressed:
Africa rising: A vision of Africa rising to the challenge on all three G20 Pillars, with a generational expansion of well-being and productivity that will transform Africa for the better.
Striving progress: Depicts strides being made, but without reaching universal progress.
Sombre stagnation: Offers a sombre vision of what is at stake if Africa fails to leverage the current opportunities presented.
“Our intention is that this report enhances our shared understanding of this complex, fascinating and growing continent. We believe it will provide useful insights and actionable ideas to be applied to help generate prosperity, be it at the continental level, sectoral level or even an individual business. This may prove invaluable in helping to set Africa on the right course for future prosperity,” Mhlanga said.
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