Africa’s demand for refined products to surge into 2050

NJ AyukAs global energy dynamics evolve, the continent stands at a critical point where it can leverage its substantial fossil fuel resources to drive equitable development. To achieve this, investment must focus on refining capacity, trading networks, and the adoption of cleaner fuels, as outlined in the African Energy Chamber’s (AEC) 2026 Outlook Report, The State of African Energy.Although many developed economies are reducing reliance on oil and gas, Africa is only now positioned to benefit fully from its own resources. The continent still faces infrastructure constraints, yet rising demand presents significant opportunities for energy security and economic growth.A unique trajectoryAfrica’s energy path differs markedly from the transitions underway in Europe, North America, and parts of Asia. Per-capita consumption in sub-Saharan Africa remains the lowest in the world, leaving substantial room for growth as populations and economies expand. The continent’s population could increase by more than 930 million by 2050, reaching almost 2.4 billion people, around 25% of the global total and 63% of worldwide population growth between now and mid-century.Economic projections are equally significant. Africa’s GDP is expected to nearly triple to roughly US$7.8 trillion by 2050, growing at a compound annual rate of just under 4%. Much of this expansion will be concentrated in smaller, less developed markets, driving demand for energy-intensive activities. Despite accounting for 18% of the global population, the continent consumes under 5% of the world’s oil products and contributes only 3% to global GDP, underscoring substantial untapped potential.According to the AEC’s 2026 Outlook Report, Africa’s oil demand will continue rising to 2050 and beyond, supported by demographic expansion, industrialisation, and urbanisation. Sub-Saharan Africa’s exceptionally low per-capita oil consumption highlights the scale of unmet need and the likelihood of sustained growth.Gasoline: Global growth will be AfricanAfrica is set to become the primary driver of global gasoline demand growth, offsetting declines in China and advanced economies. The report projects the continent’s gasoline consumption to exceed 2.2 million bbl/d by 2050, with Nigeria and emerging markets leading the increase.Nigeria already dominates African gasoline use, but its per-capita demand remains low relative to global averages. In more mature markets – Algeria, Morocco, Egypt and South Africa – demand is likely to plateau in the early 2040s because of improving fuel efficiency, gradual adoption of CNG/LPG vehicles, and rising electric vehicle (EV) uptake, particularly in South Africa.The transportation analysis in the Outlook Report shows that continent-wide gasoline demand will keep rising as light-duty vehicle fleets continue to rely predominantly on petrol engines. While EV penetration will increase, progress will be slow given inadequate electricity supply and limited charging infrastructure. As a result, gasoline will remain the backbone of personal mobility and small-scale commercial transport for decades, especially in less developed regions where economic activity depends heavily on road logistics.Diesel/Gasoil: Fuel for industry and extractionDiesel and gasoil demand will grow even more strongly, increasing by around 880 000 bbl/d by 2050, almost 50% above current levels, to just under 2.7 million bbl/d. This positions Africa as the leading global growth region for diesel, surpassing Latin America.Growth will extend well beyond road transport. The extractive industries will be major drivers as investment accelerates in minerals vital to the global energy transition, including lithium, cobalt and nickel. Much of the increase will come from Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Development in the Copperbelt, particularly around the Lobito Corridor project, will further intensify diesel requirements for mining operations and backup power generation.Rising population and GDP will also increase demand for the trucking and freight services that underpin regional trade. Diesel’s versatility in heavy-duty applications ensures continued reliance even as cleaner technologies gain traction elsewhere.Aviation fuels: Recovery and growthJet fuel and kerosene consumption in Africa is set for strong medium-term recovery, with demand expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2025. Consumption is projected to reach around 280,000 bbl/d this year and rise by 65% by 2050 to about 465,000 bbl/d.This growth will be driven by expanding tourism, business travel, the emergence of a larger urban middle class, and significant infrastructure investments. Large-scale projects such as Ethiopia’s new airport and initiatives under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will enhance connectivity, boosting both passenger numbers and air freight.LPG: A cleaner cooking fuel with enormous potentialAmong refined products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) presents the clearest opportunity for cleaner household energy. The Outlook Report identifies LPG as the most affordable and practical alternative to biomass and coal for cooking, with major benefits for health, the environment and emissions reduction.More than 900 million Africans still lack access to clean cooking technologies, relying instead on wood, charcoal, dung, or paraffin - fuels that contribute to indoor pollution, deforestation and high greenhouse gas emissions. Transitioning to LPG could cut particulate matter by 98%, save 1.2 million hectares of forest annually, and reduce black carbon emissions by the equivalent of 117 million tonnes of CO2 each year. Total CO2 reductions could reach 279 million tonnes per year, comparable to the annual emissions of mid-sized countries such as Taiwan or Malaysia.Despite these advantages, LPG consumption remains below 20 million tonnes per year. Based on S&P Global Commodity Insights data, the Outlook Report forecasts only modest growth, driven mainly by Nigeria, Morocco, Egypt, South Africa and Algeria.However, the report argues that consumption could more than double by 2050 if barriers such as weak regulation, limited consumer financing and poor distribution networks, especially in rural areas, were addressed. Successes in Kenya, Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire show that rapid progress is possible with supportive policies.Barriers and the path forwardAfrica’s rising demand for refined products highlights the need for major downstream investment. More than US$20 billion will be required by 2050 to support import handling, storage and distribution. Flagship projects such as Nigeria’s Dangote refinery represent significant progress, but they cannot meet continental demand alone. Smaller projects underway in Angola and Uganda will help, yet substantial gaps remain.The AEC’s 2026 Outlook Report makes clear that Africa’s energy future is one of substantial long-term growth. To ensure this growth benefits all Africans, policymakers, investors and international partners must prioritise efficient trading systems, expand local refining, and accelerate transitions to cleaner fuels such as LPG. Doing so will equip the continent to meet the needs of its projected 2.4 billion people by mid-century.•NJ Ayuk is the executive chairman of the African Energy Chamber.

Africa’s demand for refined products to surge into 2050

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Namibian Sun 2025-12-03

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Africa’s demand for refined products to surge into 2050

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Namibian Sun 2025-12-03

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