Namibia’s $900m diversification roadmap

Namibia could unlock more than $900 million in new economic activity and create approximately 26,000 jobs by strategically expanding beyond raw mineral exports. This is according to a new report by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), which outlines the country's potential to move into higher-value processing and manufacturing.

As global demand for critical energy transition minerals accelerates, UNCTAD said Namibia has concrete opportunities to develop industries linked to mineral processing and related manufacturing—provided that investment and policy efforts are focused on realistic, priority products.

The assessment identifies 353 feasible products across 23 sectors where Namibia can diversify based on its existing capabilities. Of these, 60 products are directly linked to critical energy transition mineral value chains, offering clear pathways to upgrade economic activity beyond simple extraction.

Under a global export scenario, 200 of these products represent an estimated $811 million in market opportunity. Additionally, UNCTAD said import substitution could unlock an additional $117 million, reflecting goods Namibia currently imports but could competitively produce domestically.

A prioritised subset of these opportunities could generate around 26,000 jobs, strengthening productive employment and reducing the country’s vulnerability to commodity price volatility.

The analysis uses economic complexity methods to map the capabilities embedded in Namibia’s current production and export structure. UNCTAD said this approach identifies realistic "next-step" diversification options rather than purely aspirational targets.

The report was developed under UNCTAD’s project, "Critical Energy Transition Minerals: Rapid Assessment of Value Addition and Diversification Capacity in Southern Africa," which is funded by the Government of Japan. It said the findings provide policy options and implementation priorities to support Namibia’s industrialisation and value-addition strategy.