Namibia may influence global oil prices

Namibia has the potential to become a significant player in the global oil and gas market and even influence prices, but strategic decisions will determine whether that potential is realised. 

These views were expressed by Standard Bank Namibia group economist Helena Mboti during a recent budget discussion panel, held against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East that have driven sharp spikes in international oil prices.

As of mid-to-late March 2026, Brent crude has traded in the US$92–US$108 per barrel range, with significant intraday volatility — roughly US$20/bbl higher than pre-war levels, Reuters reported.

“The globe is looking at diversified sources of supply outside the Middle East, and I think it could be an opportunity for Namibia in the long term to say, ‘Look, we cannot impact supply today,’” Mboti said during the panel discussion.

According to Mboti, the scale of Namibia’s offshore discoveries positions the country to one day become influential enough to affect movements in oil and gas markets. Namibia has rapidly emerged as one of the world’s most promising new frontiers, thanks to a string of major discoveries in the deepwater Orange Basin since 2022. The basin is estimated to hold multi-billion barrels of oil equivalent, with significant successes by operators including TotalEnergies, Shell, Galp, and Rhino Resources.

"Namibia can be positioned as one of the players that the globe looks to for influencing fuel prices, given the size of our discoveries. Yes, we can be, but again, if we play our cards right,” Mboti said.

The current Middle East crisis began on 28 February 2026 when the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials. The conflict escalated quickly, spreading across the region with strikes on infrastructure in Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and Gulf states, as well as attacks on shipping and energy facilities.

This has triggered the largest oil supply disruption in modern history, largely due to damage to energy infrastructure and a near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Flows from major producers, including Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait have been severely curtailed, with Middle East output falling by an estimated 7–12 million barrels per day at peak disruption, far exceeding losses seen in previous conflicts, according to Reuters.