Is it a women-only race?
• Saara and Netumbo tipped for two-mare race
Jemima BeukesWINDHOEK
As the Swapo congress nears and calls intensify about potential candidates for the position of vice-president and eventually the party’s candidate in the 2024 election, only two names continue to enjoy the limelight. Current party vice-president Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, who this week cheekily admitted she is in the running, and Prime Minister Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila.
Originally, two more names – of defence minister Frans Kapofi and his environmental counterpart Pohamba Shifeta - were in the mix. For Kapofi, the so-called ‘Helmut Amendments’ that require presidential candidates to have served in the central committee and politburo for 10 consecutive years seem to be a stumbling block.
Even President Hage Geingob, who is understood to have preferred the man he promoted a year ago to the defence portfolio, can’t seem to be able to circumvent the amendments, suggested by party veteran Helmut Angula, and incorporated in the party constitution to keep ‘opportunists’ at bay.
Shifeta remains a popular figure in the party if his recent fairing in central committee elections are anything to go by, but his name has been lost in the woman-president narrative.
Overall, talk of his contest has lost steam, but he cannot be underestimated.
Swapo was scheduled to have a central committee meeting last weekend, where the nomination of candidates was anticipated, but it was postponed due to the burial of Geingob’s aunt, which has since been postponed to tomorrow.
The central committee is now expected to sit at the end of this month – and nominations are then likely to be held.
Ahead of that decisive meeting, only Nandi-Ndaitwah and Kuugongelwa-Amadhila seem to be in definite contention, leaving many wondering whether Swapo must brace for a historic elective congress with women as the only contestants for presidential candidate.
Ohangwena-Omusati brawl
“Netumbo is strong politically, but Saara has the business community behind her. We simply can’t predict who will emerge between the two,” a party insider said this week.
The downside of a contest between the two candidates, observers said, is that it may spark another Ohangwena-Omusati brawl. The two regions have always been in a tussle for political dominance within Swapo – and it was because of this that the Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP), formed mainly by the Ohangwena faction of Swapo after the acrimonious 2004 Swapo extraordinary congress, was formed.
Political analysts have cautioned that early expression of interest by Swapo bigwigs in the presidential position may fuel division, which the already-fragile ruling party cannot afford. The 2017 congress divided the party and such divisions are partially blamed for Swapo losing its two-thirds majority in the 2019 general elections.
Political analyst Ndumba Kamwanyah argued that it is a good thing that Geingob has so far played his cards close to his chest as far as his preferred candidate – perhaps between the two women – is concerned.
“I think it’s good for Geingob to wait until all the potential candidates have publicly announced their candidacies,” he said.
“A presidential endorsement carries a lot of clout and influence; therefore, it has the potential to unlevel the natural process succession. I think later on in the process he can publicly do so, but not so early in the process.
“Of course, they can have their preferences, but better do it behind the scenes until the process is consolidated. “Big wigs in party pronouncing themselves so early in the process is a recipe for further divisions,” he said.
Vicious political trap
Kamwanyah, however, does not agree with the “time has come for a female president” mantra, saying it sets a wrong precedent and is a “vicious political trap” created when support was pledged for Geingob as non-Aawambo president.
“What will be the right next time, young person? The framing should not be the time for a woman to take over but rather time for the right and capable person to take over. The party badly needs a fresh and visionary leader to take it to new heights.”
Political analyst Graham Hopwood believes that both Nandi-Ndaitwah and Kuugongelwa-Amadhila are strong candidates in terms of their track records in the party and the government.
It is his view that Nandi-Ndaitwah may be considered by some in the party to be too old for the job, while Kuugongelwa-Amadhila has age on her side, but faces reputational risk factors related to her husband’s conduct in business.
“Nandi-Ndaitwah’s seniority will play well in parts of the party, but could be a turn-off for those who want to see a younger, more dynamic leader. At the same time, Kuugongelwa-Amadhila lacks political charisma and appears to have become more and more defensive about government’s record over the years,” he said.
Traditionally, candidates do not publicly promote themselves for Swapo positions until an official period for nominations is opened, which - according to Hopwood - is one the reasons there are only hints about the potential candidates.
“Considering the damage caused by the differing camps in 2017, it will be interesting to see whether the party can come up with a consensus candidate or whether there will be open competition again.”
Non-issue
Another issue that is likely to rear its head during this time of contestation is Nandi-Ndaitwah’s affiliation with the RDP, which broke away from Swapo in the early 2000s.
However, Hopwood believes that Nandi-Ndaitwah has always been very loyal to the ruling party, while she may have been sympathetic to the founder of RDP, the late Hidipo Hamutenya.
Swapo spokesperson Hilma Nicanor yesterday said the party is going into its congress strong, with confidence that it has dealt with the divisions of the past.
“Our motto is that everyone must respect and adhere to the party constitutional provisions, especially when it comes to nominations and candidates for positions. “The issue of the camps has been addressed when we had our introspection session. That matter has really enjoyed a lot of attention in the party structure, [but] it is not a concern any more,” she said.
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As the Swapo congress nears and calls intensify about potential candidates for the position of vice-president and eventually the party’s candidate in the 2024 election, only two names continue to enjoy the limelight. Current party vice-president Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, who this week cheekily admitted she is in the running, and Prime Minister Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila.
Originally, two more names – of defence minister Frans Kapofi and his environmental counterpart Pohamba Shifeta - were in the mix. For Kapofi, the so-called ‘Helmut Amendments’ that require presidential candidates to have served in the central committee and politburo for 10 consecutive years seem to be a stumbling block.
Even President Hage Geingob, who is understood to have preferred the man he promoted a year ago to the defence portfolio, can’t seem to be able to circumvent the amendments, suggested by party veteran Helmut Angula, and incorporated in the party constitution to keep ‘opportunists’ at bay.
Shifeta remains a popular figure in the party if his recent fairing in central committee elections are anything to go by, but his name has been lost in the woman-president narrative.
Overall, talk of his contest has lost steam, but he cannot be underestimated.
Swapo was scheduled to have a central committee meeting last weekend, where the nomination of candidates was anticipated, but it was postponed due to the burial of Geingob’s aunt, which has since been postponed to tomorrow.
The central committee is now expected to sit at the end of this month – and nominations are then likely to be held.
Ahead of that decisive meeting, only Nandi-Ndaitwah and Kuugongelwa-Amadhila seem to be in definite contention, leaving many wondering whether Swapo must brace for a historic elective congress with women as the only contestants for presidential candidate.
Ohangwena-Omusati brawl
“Netumbo is strong politically, but Saara has the business community behind her. We simply can’t predict who will emerge between the two,” a party insider said this week.
The downside of a contest between the two candidates, observers said, is that it may spark another Ohangwena-Omusati brawl. The two regions have always been in a tussle for political dominance within Swapo – and it was because of this that the Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP), formed mainly by the Ohangwena faction of Swapo after the acrimonious 2004 Swapo extraordinary congress, was formed.
Political analysts have cautioned that early expression of interest by Swapo bigwigs in the presidential position may fuel division, which the already-fragile ruling party cannot afford. The 2017 congress divided the party and such divisions are partially blamed for Swapo losing its two-thirds majority in the 2019 general elections.
Political analyst Ndumba Kamwanyah argued that it is a good thing that Geingob has so far played his cards close to his chest as far as his preferred candidate – perhaps between the two women – is concerned.
“I think it’s good for Geingob to wait until all the potential candidates have publicly announced their candidacies,” he said.
“A presidential endorsement carries a lot of clout and influence; therefore, it has the potential to unlevel the natural process succession. I think later on in the process he can publicly do so, but not so early in the process.
“Of course, they can have their preferences, but better do it behind the scenes until the process is consolidated. “Big wigs in party pronouncing themselves so early in the process is a recipe for further divisions,” he said.
Vicious political trap
Kamwanyah, however, does not agree with the “time has come for a female president” mantra, saying it sets a wrong precedent and is a “vicious political trap” created when support was pledged for Geingob as non-Aawambo president.
“What will be the right next time, young person? The framing should not be the time for a woman to take over but rather time for the right and capable person to take over. The party badly needs a fresh and visionary leader to take it to new heights.”
Political analyst Graham Hopwood believes that both Nandi-Ndaitwah and Kuugongelwa-Amadhila are strong candidates in terms of their track records in the party and the government.
It is his view that Nandi-Ndaitwah may be considered by some in the party to be too old for the job, while Kuugongelwa-Amadhila has age on her side, but faces reputational risk factors related to her husband’s conduct in business.
“Nandi-Ndaitwah’s seniority will play well in parts of the party, but could be a turn-off for those who want to see a younger, more dynamic leader. At the same time, Kuugongelwa-Amadhila lacks political charisma and appears to have become more and more defensive about government’s record over the years,” he said.
Traditionally, candidates do not publicly promote themselves for Swapo positions until an official period for nominations is opened, which - according to Hopwood - is one the reasons there are only hints about the potential candidates.
“Considering the damage caused by the differing camps in 2017, it will be interesting to see whether the party can come up with a consensus candidate or whether there will be open competition again.”
Non-issue
Another issue that is likely to rear its head during this time of contestation is Nandi-Ndaitwah’s affiliation with the RDP, which broke away from Swapo in the early 2000s.
However, Hopwood believes that Nandi-Ndaitwah has always been very loyal to the ruling party, while she may have been sympathetic to the founder of RDP, the late Hidipo Hamutenya.
Swapo spokesperson Hilma Nicanor yesterday said the party is going into its congress strong, with confidence that it has dealt with the divisions of the past.
“Our motto is that everyone must respect and adhere to the party constitutional provisions, especially when it comes to nominations and candidates for positions. “The issue of the camps has been addressed when we had our introspection session. That matter has really enjoyed a lot of attention in the party structure, [but] it is not a concern any more,” she said.
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