FMD could bleed N$1.8bn to N$4.4bn from public purse

Namibia’s foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak could cost government an estimated N$1.8 billion in additional spending and lost tax revenue, rising to N$4.39 billion in a more severe scenario, according to Simonis Storm Securities.The projected expenditure includes disease surveillance, the southern cordon fence, compensation for culled animals and relief for affected farmers and abattoirs.In its mid-year budget review preview, published on 19 October, Simonis Storm said government had underestimated the cost of prevention.“Prevention was underfunded. About N$1.5 billion was requested in February against N$57.5 million approved,” the review said.The financial risks extend beyond the immediate cost of containing the disease. Restrictions on livestock movement and disruption to economic activity could reduce tax revenue and agricultural output.The firm’s base-case estimate includes N$800 million in tax revenue losses resulting from weaker economic activity.It estimates that about N$1 billion of the total impact would fall within the 2026/27 financial year, comprising N$600 million in additional spending and N$400 million in lost revenue.Three scenariosSimonis Storm’s estimates are based on three scenarios, which largely reflect the duration of livestock movement restrictions.Under its contained scenario, which assumes a four-week ban, the fiscal cost is estimated at N$630 million. The base case assumes a nine-week ban, while the stress scenario assumes restrictions lasting 13 weeks, alongside vaccination measures, and puts the cost at N$4.39 billion.The estimates come as the disease has been confirmed in the ||Kharas and Zambezi regions. The latest available figures show 131 positive animals on 18 farms in the Karasburg Veterinary District in ||Kharas, and 12 positive samples from an outbreak site at Kalala Island in Zambezi.The firm estimates that about N$8.8 billion in economic value added, equivalent to 3.1% of gross domestic product (GDP), is directly exposed to the outbreak. Namibia’s beef exports are worth about N$5.5 billion a year, of which an estimated N$3.3 billion goes to the European Union, the United Kingdom and Norway.The outbreak could also weigh on economic growth. Simonis Storm forecasts real GDP growth of between 2% and 2.3% in 2026, compared with its pre-outbreak baseline of 2.5%. Under its more severe scenario, growth could fall to 1.8%.Dry seasonResearchers also flagged the risk of El Niño-related drought, adding to pressure on agriculture, which supported economic growth in the first half of the year.The potential fiscal burden comes as government faces weaker-than-budgeted revenue, rising interest costs and pressure to contain the budget deficit.The ministry of finance’s mid-year budget review to be presented any time soon is expected to provide an updated assessment of public finances and clarify how additional disease-control measures will be funded.

FMD could bleed N$1.8bn to N$4.4bn from public purse

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Namibian Sun 2026-10-20

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FMD could bleed N$1.8bn to N$4.4bn from public purse

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Namibian Sun 2026-10-20

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