Election results signal key voter trends and mindsets – analysts
• Voter confidence crisis as turnout slides
Many people feel their vote no longer changes outcomes, or they remain unhappy with how governance issues were handled in the past.
Rita KakeloWindhoek
Political analysts say Namibia’s 2025 regional council and local authority elections reveal a deeper story than the numbers alone suggest.
With turnout sliding to 40.7% in the regional council elections and an even lower 36.29% in local authorities, experts warn that the country is confronting a participation crisis that could shape its political landscape for years to come.
Several overlapping factors are believed to have driven the decline.
Analysts argue that many citizens still do not fully appreciate the importance of regional and local governments, even though these bodies shape daily life through water supply, electricity, waste management, land allocation and housing.
When voters do not clearly understand the power and influence of these councils, they are less motivated to vote.
A growing sense of political fatigue and disillusionment also plays a significant role, experts say.
Many people feel their vote no longer changes outcomes, or they remain unhappy with how governance issues were handled in the past.
This sentiment is particularly strong in urban centres, where expectations surged in 2020, but service-delivery frustrations remain unresolved.
Young people, despite making up a significant share of the voter roll, were among the least likely to participate. Analysts say this points to an emotional and structural disconnect between youth priorities and local political leadership.
For many first-time voters, the political system does not speak to their economic realities, employment struggles or housing pressures.
Logistical constraints
Limited civic education is seen as another contributor. Many citizens did not receive sufficient information about the roles and powers of the councils they were voting for, leading to confusion or indifference.
Analysts argue that public awareness campaigns were too shallow, too short or overshadowed by national political drama.
Practical obstacles also weakened participation. Political commentator Ndumba J Kamwanyah noted that voters could cast ballots only in the constituencies where they were registered.
For students and young people studying or working far from home, the cost of returning to their registered constituency proved simply too expensive.
“It’s expensive to travel back to your constituency just to cast your vote and only to return to your situation,” he said.
Despite the low turnout, observers noted that Swapo emerged as the main beneficiary of the 2025 elections.
Political analyst Erika Thomas said Swapo and AR “worked hard to get the votes”, and that IPC could be considered the biggest loser because expectations were high for the party to perform better after its strong 2020 showing.
Internal infighting, she argued, likely pushed voters away due to “a lack of direction, guidance and clear expectations.”
Thomas also highlighted the surprising strength of independent candidates, calling them “the biggest winners” in this environment.
She explained that many voters prefer independent candidates because they believe service delivery is faster.
Fragile voters
Analyst Rekel Andreas said Swapo’s performance should be understood primarily in terms of what the ruling party did right, not what the opposition did wrong.
“It is not about what the opposition parties did not do well, but about what Swapo did,” she noted.
Andreas attributes much of the ruling party’s success to President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah’s 2024 victory, which she said “set the tone for the regional councils and local authorities elections.”
According to her, there was already a public appetite for a female president in 2019, and 2024 confirmed it.
Andreas admitted she expected a higher turnout but said many voters might have stayed away because of “what they experienced last year” during the presidential and National Assembly elections.
“Voter trust is very fragile,” she said. However, she believes those who participated “made a strong point about the opposition’s performance in the past five years.”
Not all commentary focused on voter behaviour.
The Landless People’s Movement’s Eneas Emvula questioned the turnout figures themselves, pointing to the gap between registered voters and votes cast – roughly 23% to 34% depending on the area.
He called the numbers “some magical stuff”, suggesting that a deeper explanation may still be needed.
Political analysts say Namibia’s 2025 regional council and local authority elections reveal a deeper story than the numbers alone suggest.
With turnout sliding to 40.7% in the regional council elections and an even lower 36.29% in local authorities, experts warn that the country is confronting a participation crisis that could shape its political landscape for years to come.
Several overlapping factors are believed to have driven the decline.
Analysts argue that many citizens still do not fully appreciate the importance of regional and local governments, even though these bodies shape daily life through water supply, electricity, waste management, land allocation and housing.
When voters do not clearly understand the power and influence of these councils, they are less motivated to vote.
A growing sense of political fatigue and disillusionment also plays a significant role, experts say.
Many people feel their vote no longer changes outcomes, or they remain unhappy with how governance issues were handled in the past.
This sentiment is particularly strong in urban centres, where expectations surged in 2020, but service-delivery frustrations remain unresolved.
Young people, despite making up a significant share of the voter roll, were among the least likely to participate. Analysts say this points to an emotional and structural disconnect between youth priorities and local political leadership.
For many first-time voters, the political system does not speak to their economic realities, employment struggles or housing pressures.
Logistical constraints
Limited civic education is seen as another contributor. Many citizens did not receive sufficient information about the roles and powers of the councils they were voting for, leading to confusion or indifference.
Analysts argue that public awareness campaigns were too shallow, too short or overshadowed by national political drama.
Practical obstacles also weakened participation. Political commentator Ndumba J Kamwanyah noted that voters could cast ballots only in the constituencies where they were registered.
For students and young people studying or working far from home, the cost of returning to their registered constituency proved simply too expensive.
“It’s expensive to travel back to your constituency just to cast your vote and only to return to your situation,” he said.
Despite the low turnout, observers noted that Swapo emerged as the main beneficiary of the 2025 elections.
Political analyst Erika Thomas said Swapo and AR “worked hard to get the votes”, and that IPC could be considered the biggest loser because expectations were high for the party to perform better after its strong 2020 showing.
Internal infighting, she argued, likely pushed voters away due to “a lack of direction, guidance and clear expectations.”
Thomas also highlighted the surprising strength of independent candidates, calling them “the biggest winners” in this environment.
She explained that many voters prefer independent candidates because they believe service delivery is faster.
Fragile voters
Analyst Rekel Andreas said Swapo’s performance should be understood primarily in terms of what the ruling party did right, not what the opposition did wrong.
“It is not about what the opposition parties did not do well, but about what Swapo did,” she noted.
Andreas attributes much of the ruling party’s success to President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah’s 2024 victory, which she said “set the tone for the regional councils and local authorities elections.”
According to her, there was already a public appetite for a female president in 2019, and 2024 confirmed it.
Andreas admitted she expected a higher turnout but said many voters might have stayed away because of “what they experienced last year” during the presidential and National Assembly elections.
“Voter trust is very fragile,” she said. However, she believes those who participated “made a strong point about the opposition’s performance in the past five years.”
Not all commentary focused on voter behaviour.
The Landless People’s Movement’s Eneas Emvula questioned the turnout figures themselves, pointing to the gap between registered voters and votes cast – roughly 23% to 34% depending on the area.
He called the numbers “some magical stuff”, suggesting that a deeper explanation may still be needed.
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