Trump's bet on Iranian regime change could be his biggest gamble yet

BBC

In attacking Iran and killing the regime's supreme leader, US President Donald Trump has made an enormous bet: that he can succeed where past presidents have failed by using American military force to reshape the Middle East.

Trump will claim a generational victory if the US succeeds in fully destroying Iran's nuclear programme and bringing about regime change in Tehran using air power alone, even if there seems to be no clear plan from Washington for what would come after the Islamic Republic.

But if the military strike, called Operation Epic Fury by the Pentagon, fails or sparks a wider regional conflagration that demands ongoing US involvement, Trump could hurt his legacy and Republicans' chances of retaining control of Congress in the November midterm elections.

The president signalled how much is at stake in remarks early on Saturday when he announced the start of a military campaign in Iran.

"American heroes may be lost", Trump said. He argued this would be a necessary price to pay to inflict damage on a regime he said has sown chaos across the Middle East since seizing power in 1979.

"For 47 years, the Iranian regime has chanted Death to America," Trump said. He added later: "We're not going to put up with it any longer."

But as the world waits to see what the Iranian regime will do after the death of its supreme leader, it remains to be seen whether Trump will manage to avoid a prolonged military campaign.

It's also an open question whether he can convince the American public - and especially his MAGA base, who largely oppose US interventions abroad - to support another incursion in the Middle East.

Proxy groups

It's a pivotal moment for Trump, who returned to office little over a year ago with a promise to end so-called "forever wars" like those the US fought in Afghanistan and Iraq, but has launched military operations in Iran, Venezuela and Syria, among other countries.

The US and Israeli bombing came after the White House warned of an attack if the regime did not agree to a deal to abandon its nuclear weapons programme, stop producing ballistic missiles and drop its support for proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.

After amassing an enormous military force in the region, Trump spent Friday night monitoring the attack as it unfolded with top advisers at his Florida estate, Mar-a-Lago.

In Washington, Vice President JD Vance, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and other senior administration officials gathered in the Situation Room at the White House, according to a source familiar with the matter, and dialled into a conference line with Trump to follow the bombing in real time.

Khamenei's killing signifies a major escalation, but analysts warn it could spiral out of Trump's control.

"The die is cast and the US has to go all the way now to effect regime change. The problem is, you can't do that without boots on the ground," said Mohammed Hafez, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School.

Iran's retaliatory strikes on a host of US allies in the region - Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar and elsewhere - signalled the regime's plans to fight back more aggressively than it did after the US strike on the country last year, he added.

"The Iranian regime's strategy is [going to be] to create a regional conflict that affects the global economy, and the US economy, and that would not be a good thing for Trump," said Hafez, an expert on Islamist political violence and Middle East politics. "This could lead to a quagmire."

A protracted conflict in the Middle East could impact Trump's other priorities in the region, such as rebuilding Gaza after the Israel-Hamas war and strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia.

It could also alienate supporters back home at a time when his presidential approval ratings have taken a hammering over voter frustration with the cost of living and other domestic issues.

Read more here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn48dwm818no