Namibia braces for El Niño shock

A Namibian climate scientist has warned of mounting pressure on water, food and other resources, as well as climate-sensitive industries, as forecasters warn of a potentially devastating El Niño.

Some forecasters say the event is on track to become the strongest in at least 150 years.

The El Niño "continues to intensify steadily", increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world and significant shifts in rainfall patterns, the World Meteorological Organisation said.

The United Nations has warned that Southern Africa could see more than 12 million additional people pushed into acute hunger, with hunger levels potentially rising by 75%. It put the likelihood of a very strong El Niño at 81%.

Speaking in Otjiwarongo earlier this week during discussions on the revised National Policy on Climate Change, environment ministry conservation scientist Sion Shifa said: “Namibia has already experienced a rise in annual temperature over the past decade,” adding that rainfall patterns had changed and drought was becoming more frequent.

Shifa said declining rainfall and rising temperatures were accelerating evaporation from dams and other reservoirs, while insufficient rainfall was affecting the replenishment of underground aquifers.

The concern is particularly serious for Namibia, which relies heavily on groundwater and remains highly dependent on climate-sensitive sectors.

Widespread impact

Reduced and unreliable rainfall threatens rain-fed crop production, while livestock producers face declining grazing and water availability. Shifa said that expanding arid areas could damage ecosystems and affect tourism, which relies heavily on wildlife and natural landscapes.

Higher temperatures could also increase health risks, including conditions favourable to diseases such as malaria and cholera, while extreme heat poses additional health threats.

Coastal areas face flooding and rising sea temperatures, which could push fish stocks towards cooler waters and reduce catches in some areas, Shifa said.

Energy supply could also come under pressure. Reduced flows in the Kunene River could lower hydropower production, although Namibia’s high solar radiation provides an opportunity to expand solar power.

Shifa said Namibia’s vulnerability was compounded by limited capacity to adapt. Some infrastructure was built without sufficient consideration of changing climate conditions, while early-warning systems do not always translate forecasts into information communities can act on.

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