Namibia needs N$239bn in foreign climate finance

Namibia needs about N$314 billion to implement its new climate plan, but government expects nearly N$239 billion of that amount to come from international funding and support.

This means Namibia would have to secure about three-quarters of the money needed to deliver the climate measures it is proposing towards 2030/2035.

The figures are contained in the draft revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), presented during stakeholder consultations on the revised National Climate Change Policy in Otjiwarongo this week.

The draft puts the total requirement at US$19.35 billion, or approximately N$313.9 billion at current exchange rates, with US$18.99 billion, about N$308 billion, earmarked for measures aimed at reducing greenhouse-gas emissions.

Another US$366.6 million, about N$5.95 billion, is required to help communities and key economic sectors adapt to the effects of climate change.

Of the total requirement, only US$4.28 billion, approximately N$69.4 billion, is classified as unconditional, covering measures that can be supported through domestic resources, existing government spending and private-sector investment.

The remaining US$14.71 billion, or about N$238.5 billion, is conditional on Namibia securing international climate finance, technology and technical assistance.

Whether that external support materialises will therefore determine how much of the plan Namibia can implement and how far the country can go in meeting its proposed emissions-reduction targets.

The draft proposes cutting an estimated 15.8 million tonnes of greenhouse-gas emissions by 2035 if the required international support is secured. Without that support, Namibia's unconditional emissions-reduction target would be reduced to about seven million tonnes.

The proposed targets represent an increase in Namibia's climate ambition, but come after government's assessment of its previous NDC, covering the 2020 to 2025 period, identified financing and implementation weaknesses that prevented some commitments from progressing as initially envisaged.

A cross-sector effort

The assessment found that although progress had been recorded in several areas, shortcomings remained in financing, monitoring, institutional responsibility and the practicality of some of the targets government had set.

One example was the previous ambition to introduce green-hydrogen-powered locomotives. The stocktake found that no locomotive conversion had been completed and that the initiative remained largely at the planning and pilot stage, concluding that converting the entire locomotive fleet by 2030 would not be realistic without the required technology, infrastructure, financing and testing.

The revised plan therefore proposes a more gradual approach, beginning with pilot projects before attempting wider implementation.

The financing challenge is particularly significant in the energy sector, which accounts for the overwhelming majority of the proposed climate investment.

Energy-related mitigation measures alone are estimated to require US$16.83 billion, or about N$273 billion, covering areas including renewable electricity generation, transport electrification, energy efficiency and cleaner cooking and heating.

The scale of the proposed investment means implementation would extend well beyond the environment ministry and require expenditure and investment across energy, transport, agriculture, water and other sectors, as well as participation by the private sector and international financiers.

Government's current national budget provides N$25.6 million for the environment ministry's dedicated National Climate Change and Adaptation programme in 2026/27, although that allocation does not represent the country's total climate-related spending because climate programmes and projects are also funded through other ministries and sectors.

The medium-term expenditure plan says government intends to integrate climate considerations more fully into spending across sectors while mobilising N$260 million in climate finance for climate-resilience projects between 2025/26 and 2028/29.

That amount, however, is small compared with the scale of international finance envisaged under NDC 3.0 if all the proposed measures are to be implemented.

The revised plan covers interventions that could eventually affect households and businesses through renewable electricity, cleaner transport, energy efficiency, agriculture, water security, disaster preparedness and measures intended to strengthen communities against droughts, floods and rising temperatures.

The N$313.9 billion should not be interpreted as money the government intends to provide entirely from the national budget. It represents the estimated financing required across the proposed climate programme from domestic and international sources, with about N$238.5 billion dependent on external financial, technological or technical support.

The draft also proposes stronger systems for monitoring how climate finance is raised and spent and whether the projects and emissions reductions attached to that funding are actually delivered.