Like Godot, Namibia has to wait for oil jobs, better days

Irish playwright Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot tells the story of a man who never arrives.

In Namibia, the wait for oil jobs, downstream industries and better days is beginning to feel much the same.

Perhaps late President Hage Geingob was right after all when he warned that Namibia’s oil does not truly belong to the country, but to those who finance its extraction – a reality that continues to shape how decisions are made and why progress often appears slow and uncertain.

“Legally, it is not ours. Legally it is owned by the investors, with 90%, but we are going to get it through taxes and royalties until we nationalise and become socialists. We do not want that,” Geingob said during an engagement with political parties in 2022.

Three years on, and with the benefit of hindsight, those remarks are proving difficult to ignore.

Whether one agrees or not does little to change the underlying reality: without putting capital at risk, Namibia has limited control over how its offshore oil is developed. Decisions rest largely with those who finance exploration and production.

Reality bites

That reality now forms the starting point of Namibia’s current policy debate under President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, who has taken a more cautious and forward-looking stance, focusing on how the country can convert limited ownership into broader national benefit.

“If it is not properly managed from the beginning, it could become a curse for our country,” Nandi-Ndaitwah said in a 2026 national address, where she also placed the petroleum sector under the Presidency to tighten oversight.

Taking the oil and gas portfolio into the Presidency may strengthen oversight, improve coordination and potentially reduce corruption risks.

It does not, however, alter the resource's fundamental ownership structure or shift control away from those financing the projects.

At the centre of that effort is the delayed petroleum amendment bill, which the president has identified as critical to shaping Namibia’s oil future.

“The first step is to pass the petroleum amendment bill with urgency, as one year has already been lost,” Nandi-Ndaitwah said, linking legal reform directly to the country’s ability to secure meaningful benefits from its resources.

Transparency and oversight

Amending the Petroleum Act is meant to reset the balance between the state and investors, giving Namibia stronger tools to negotiate local content, state participation and value retention.

It can embed requirements for job creation, skills transfer and procurement from Namibian businesses while strengthening transparency and oversight. However, while such reforms could improve Namibia’s bargaining position, they cannot change the fundamental reality that investors who fund exploration and production retain significant control over operations.

“While first oil is a critical landmark, it is not the end goal," the president said in April.

"The objective is structural transformation, inclusive growth and long-term prosperity,” she added, underlining that “good governance, accountability and ethical leadership will remain the foundation of this effort.”

Former Bank of Namibia governor Johannes !Gawaxab has warned that Namibia must avoid the resource curse by learning from the experiences of others, while former mines and energy minister Tom Alweendo noted that “hopefully, Namibia has learnt enough lessons from others".

Lessons

While Nandi-Ndaitwah and others who have voiced concerns seem aware of a possible resource curse, there is a significant gap between Namibia's ambitions and the successes of some oil-producing Gulf states.

In Saudi Arabia, the state retains decisive control through Saudi Aramco, with revenues channelled into national development and job creation through sovereign funds and industrial programmes.

The United Arab Emirates manages its sector through the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, ensuring that, while foreign investors participate, ownership and strategic direction remain with the state, allowing revenues to be reinvested in infrastructure and employment.

Qatar, through QatarEnergy, maintains full control of its gas sector, using revenues to fund public services and expand economic opportunities.

In Kuwait, full state ownership under the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation ensures that oil wealth supports housing, healthcare, education and public-sector jobs.

Across these countries, the pattern is clear – ownership and control determine whether oil wealth creates jobs or simply flows out of the economy.

Without a strong legal framework, clear local content rules and deliberate policies to build domestic industries, oil may generate revenue without transforming lives.

The delay in passing the petroleum amendment bill, therefore, carries consequences beyond policy. It affects whether Namibia can negotiate for jobs, build local capacity and ensure that the benefits of oil reach the majority.

Geingob’s warning was not a rejection of oil wealth but a reminder of its limits.