December rains on the way

According to agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg, the most likely period for rain is from about 10 to 24 December.

03 December 2021 | Weather



The Namibia Meteorological Service forecasts heavy rain for far northern Namibia this weekend, while the rest of the country can expect rain from the end of next week until Christmas.

It added that cooler air is also expected to move in over the //Karas Region this weekend.

In his latest weather outlook, agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg said rainfall conditions are improving over northern Namibia and above-average rainfall is expected north of Otjiwarongo in December.

The most likely period for rain is from about 10 to 24 December, he said.

The central parts can expect good rainfall from about 18 to 24 December, while the southern parts can only expect lighter showers just before Christmas.

La Niña

According to Van den Berg, although the La Niña weather phenomenon is still in a weak phase, it is likely to develop to a moderate event.

“The current La Niña intensity is still classified as a weak event with all Niño areas between 0.5°C and 1°C cooler than normal.

“It is expected that temperatures will further cool down to reach levels of about 1.3°C cooler than normal towards the end of December. That will represent a moderate La Niña and about the same intensity as in 2020/2021.

“Forecasts indicate that the current La Niña will last until about March/April 2022.”

Long-term predictions

He further said although it is still very early, there are some indications that the 2022/2023 season will be either neutral or El Niño-like.

“This is despite a so-called ‘wet cycle’ that will probably last until about 2025. El Niño can disrupt this wetter trend.”

Van den Berg added that with La Niña in place and lesser influence of the Indian Ocean due to the current neutral state, outlooks are positive for average to above-average rainfall for most of the summer rainfall area.

“With less rain recorded over the eastern areas than forecasts indicated during October and November, there are strong indications of heavy falls to follow. It seems that globally there was a delay in the La Niña impact, but that it will eventually result in the expected impact.”

Dam levels

Meanwhile, the average level of the country’s dams stands at 52.9% in comparison to last season’s 23%.

The average level of the dams in the central area of Namibia is 64.6%, while last season it was 57.6%.

The level of the dams in the east of the country stands at 28.7%. Last season the average level was 40.6%.

In the south, the dams are at 58.8%, compared to last season’s 19.4%.

The Olushandja Dam in Oshana is at 12.2%, while the Omaruru Delta Dam in Erongo and the Omatjenne Dam in Otjozondjupa are empty.

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