More cold water poured on SA’s green hydrogen dreams

Nick Hedley - Egged on by wealthy countries, South Africa has conjured up big dreams of becoming a green hydrogen powerhouse. Unfortunately, study after study shows we're likely setting ourselves up for disappointment – and we may pay lots of school fees in the process.The country's just energy transition investment plan sees us investing R319 billion in hydrogen projects by 2027, with financial contributions from the likes of Germany, France, the UK, and the US. It's highly improbable that we'll meet that target – because, well, we do things slowly here – but if we simply make a start on some of the flagship projects, we may well regret it.Shipping hydrogenThe planning documents talks of an opportunity to become "a world-leading exporter of green hydrogen", indicating that few, if any, scientists or engineers were privy to the background discussions.The problem, you see, is that shipping hydrogen long distances is a bit like trying to fill a bathtub by carrying water in your cupped hands from the kitchen sink. You'll lose most of it along the way.Hydrogen is the lightest molecule on earth, and is excellent at escaping whatever it's contained in – creating cracks in the process. It also happens to be extremely flammable.Further, you need very large containers to transport hydrogen because of its low volumetric energy density. This means that you'd get much less energy from a ship transporting hydrogen than you would from one the same size that's moving fossil fuels around.Hydrogen can be compressed, liquefied, or converted into other carriers like ammonia and methanol for the journey, but that just results in more wasted energy and reduced efficiencies.Little senseAll in all, it makes very little sense from a physics and economic perspective.And the penny is finally dropping.Last week, Germany's government-funded Ariadne energy transition research alliance said in a report that the European country shouldn't count on imports of green hydrogen via ships. Policymakers there have been banking on this strategy as a means to decarbonising the steel and chemicals sectors.But doing so would be "very expensive due to high efficiency losses and the resulting costs, and appears increasingly implausible", the researchers wrote, as reported by Clean Energy Wire."It is also unrealistic to want to completely replace the current import of fossil fuels with green energy sources – not only because green hydrogen and renewable electricity are in short supply in Germany, but also because they are much more difficult to transport than coal, oil or natural gas," Ariadne said.Far-fetchedBack to South Africa's just energy transition investment plan: Policymakers here hope to develop a new port at Boegoebaai – far up the west coast in the Northern Cape – to facilitate hydrogen exports. The project will cost up to R150 billion, and the German government is supporting these efforts, partly because it intends to be an off-taker.Well, those ambitions are looking more far-fetched by the day.That said, hydrogen still presents South Africa with a real opportunity – albeit one that's much closer to home.RelocateIn the same report, the Ariadne alliance conceded that Germany will likely see some energy-intensive industry relocate to other markets that have better renewable energy resources and can therefore make green hydrogen at much lower costs.In other words, rather than buying hydrogen from South Africa, Germany is more likely to buy low-carbon iron, steel and chemicals from us, which we will have processed using our locally made green hydrogen.This implies that instead of setting up expensive hydrogen export terminals at Boegoebaai, we should gear those ports up to transport industrial goods. The sunny and windy Northern Cape is one of the best spots in the world to make low-cost clean hydrogen – and therefore green steel, chemicals, and shipping and jet fuels for the international market as well.MisguidedMeanwhile, South Africa's plans to also invest in "hydrogen mobility" may be equally as misguided.The general rule is that wherever direct electrification is possible, that's the best option, as converting electricity into hydrogen and back is highly inefficient and expensive. And in the mobility sector, electrification is already proving to be very much viable (at least for all land-based transport).The good news is that South Africa's slow progress on implementing the just transition programme gives us time to refocus our efforts. We should forget about exporting hydrogen and shoving the stuff in cars and trucks – the real opportunity is to use our excellent wind and solar resources to become a green industrial powerhouse. - Fin24

More cold water poured on SA’s green hydrogen dreams

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Namibian Sun 2025-05-01

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More cold water poured on SA’s green hydrogen dreams

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Namibian Sun 2025-05-01

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