Resource boom fuels building

Namibia’s emerging green hydrogen, oil and gas and mining industries could create a multi-decade pipeline of construction and infrastructure projects worth billions of dollars, according to economic research firm Simonis Storm.

The firm says the scale of investment associated with the country’s expanding resource economy could transform the construction sector, although significant capacity constraints could limit the extent to which domestic companies benefit.

Simonis Storm describes Namibia as being at a “resource and infrastructure frontier”, arguing that the convergence of green hydrogen development, offshore oil and gas discoveries and a resurgent mining sector is creating an infrastructure pipeline with “no historical precedent in Namibian economic terms”.

The firm said monthly building statistics, which largely capture residential and commercial additions, do not reflect the full scale of construction activity that could emerge from these developments.

“Against the backdrop of monthly building statistics that capture primarily the residential and commercial additions market, the structural demand pipeline building beneath the surface represents the more consequential story for long-term construction sector investors and for the broader macro trajectory of the Namibian economy,” Simonis Storm said.

The green hydrogen programme, led by the Hyphen Hydrogen Energy project in the //Kharas region, represents the largest single prospective infrastructure commitment identified by the firm.

According to Simonis Storm, the first phase of the project is targeting 2GW of electrolysis capacity, with capital expenditure expected to exceed US$10 billionn at full build-out.

The firm estimates that civil, structural and mechanical construction could account for between 35% and 40% of total project capital expenditure.

“This implies US$3.5 billion to US$4 billionin direct construction demand, equivalent to roughly N$65 billion to N$75 billion at current exchange rates,” Simonis Storm said.

However, the firm noted that the project had not reached a formal final investment decision by mid-2026.

“The timeline [is] contingent on European offtake agreements, multilateral financing close, and export certification certainty under the EU Renewable Energy Directive,” it said.

The offshore oil and gas industry is also emerging as a major potential driver of construction activity.

Simonis Storm said discoveries by TotalEnergies and Shell in the Orange Basin had confirmed a “world-class petroleum system”, with gross recoverable resource estimates across the wider basin ranging between 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

“Development studies progressed through 2025 and 2026, with a floating production, storage, and offloading vessel, subsea infrastructure, and onshore processing and export terminal representing the core construction packages,” the firm said.

It said proposed terminal infrastructure concentrated around the Lüderitz and Walvis Bay corridor, together with NamPower grid reinforcement required for production electrification, could result in “multi-billion dollar civil and mechanical construction programmes”.

The concentration of this infrastructure along the coast would have implications for the wider economy, including Swakopmund, which Simonis Storm said could benefit from the associated economic activity.

“The proposed terminal infrastructure concentrated in the Lüderitz or Walvis Bay corridor, combined with NamPower grid reinforcement for production electrification, would constitute multi-billion dollar civil and mechanical construction programmes with substantial coastal concentration directly relevant to Swakopmund’s economic catchment,” it said.

Mining is expected to provide another layer of construction demand, with activity spread across uranium, lithium, copper and diamonds.

Simonis Storm highlighted the Langer Heinrich uranium mine, operated by Paladin Energy, which resumed production in 2024 after a decade-long suspension.

The mine is targeting annualised production of 6 million pounds of uranium oxide at full capacity and requires continued investment in plant and infrastructure, according to the firm.

Bannerman Energy’s Etango-8 uranium project has also progressed, with permitting and pre-development engineering advancing through 2025.

The firm identified the Karibib lithium district and Haib copper project as further greenfield infrastructure opportunities as demand for battery metals increases globally.

It also pointed to Namdeb’s offshore diamond operations, supported by the SS Nujoma recovery vessel, as a source of continued mechanical and marine engineering expenditure.

“Collectively, mining capital expenditure across Namibia is estimated at N$15bn to N$20bn over the 2026 to 2030 period,” Simonis Storm said.

The firm cautioned, however, that much of this investment will not be visible in Namibia’s monthly building statistics.

“Large civil infrastructure, mining plant construction, port expansion, and energy development are governed by separate regulatory and procurement frameworks and do not appear in the monthly plan approval data,” it said.

The effect on the residential and commercial property market is therefore expected to be indirect.

Simonis Storm said large resource projects could increase demand for skilled labour in coastal and mining towns, stimulate activity among suppliers and contractors, and increase household incomes.

“These [factors] lift residential demand in Windhoek, Swakopmund, Walvis Bay, and Lüderitz,” it said.

The firm believes some of the strength seen in Swakopmund’s building statistics in 2026 may reflect this anticipation of future investment.

“Swakopmund’s sustained outperformance in the 2026 building statistics is partially attributable to this anticipatory dynamic, as project developers, investors, and service businesses pre-position ahead of the execution phase,” Simonis Storm said.

But the expected investment boom could also expose weaknesses in Namibia’s construction industry.

Simonis Storm said the sector faced a “genuine capacity challenge” in absorbing the potential pipeline.

It pointed to the gap between approved projects and completed buildings as evidence of existing constraints, including a shortage of subcontractors and specialist trades as well as limited access to developer financing.

“The approval-to-completion gap visible in the monthly building statistics reflects a sector already constrained by subcontractor depth, specialist trade shortages, and restricted developer financing,” the firm said.

The scale and technical complexity of projects associated with green hydrogen, oil and gas and mining could mean that international engineering, procurement and construction contractors will be required to undertake major packages.

Domestic companies could participate further down the supply chain, but Simonis Storm warned that this would not automatically ensure that the wider economic benefits remain in Namibia.

“Large infrastructure projects will require international EPC contractors for major civil, mechanical, and process packages, with domestic firms accessing sub-tier positions,” it said.

The firm said government policy would therefore be important in determining how much of the construction boom is captured locally.

“The policy imperative is to maximise local participation through genuine skills transfer agreements, in-country fabrication requirements where viable, and labour absorption programmes scaled to energy-sector volumes,” Simonis Storm said.

It warned that without such measures, Namibia could see substantial construction spending without receiving the full domestic economic multiplier.

“Without deliberate intervention, the construction multiplier from this pipeline will accrue disproportionately to international contractors rather than to the domestic economy,” the firm said.

The potential construction pipeline therefore represents both an opportunity and a challenge for Namibia.

Simonis Storm’s assessment suggests that the country’s conventional building statistics may provide only a partial picture of the construction cycle ahead, as large-scale resource and infrastructure developments could generate demand far beyond the residential and commercial market currently captured by monthly building approvals.