Namibia’s search for oil
Huge investments for huge rewards
30 years and N$30 billion spent on exploration, with the pay-off finally in sight
Namibians are excited and apprehensive about the prospect of a significant oil discovery off the southern coast after both majors Total and Shell announced striking ‘black gold’ early in the year. Chairperson of the board for the National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia (Namcor), which owns 10% in each of the two finds, Jennifer Comalie in June described the twin discoveries as, “a game changer for Namibia. Our first discoveries since Independence so it has really been more than 30 years of exploration and finally, we’ve hit the jackpot,” she said in June in a Bloomberg.com live televised interview.
Shortly after the announcements of success at the Venus-1X and Graff-1 deepsea wells the Minister of Mines and Energy, Tom Alweendo said: “While waiting for the determination of the commerciality of the recourses, the discoveries have permeated us with an unprecedented exhilaration.”
However getting to this point has taken much dedication, perserverance and investment. Recently Briget Venner of ExxonMobil Exploration Namibia and vice chairperson of Namibia Petroleum Operators Association (NAMPOA) elaborated on that journey.
Oil exploration in the territory started way back in 1967 and by 1974 the huge Kudu Gas Field was discovered by Chevron, although the 1976 Vienna International Conference for the independence of Namibia led to voiding of all licenses and an end to exploration. In 1987 and 1988 Swakor drilled the Kudu 2 and Kudu3 wells which showed more of the dry sweet gas with little condensate found initially.
After Independence in 1989 there have been 12 wells drilled but until this year, none of them presented commercial oil discoveries. According to Venner this amounts to more that N$30 billion invested by foreign investors, ramping up to an expenditure of about N$4 billion in the last six years.
The significant increase in offshore exploration is illustrated by the number of licenses issued, which jumped from two, and one production license, issued in 2004, to 14 explorations by 2007, including onshore exploration not seen before, and by 2021 a total of 32 exploration licenses issued to 20 operators, as well as three reconnaisance licenses and one production license.
“Recent activity highlights the potential for commercial oil and gas developments,” she said naming the Kudu gas fiel, both Shell and Total discoveries which are in appraisal, and ReconAfrica’s onland exploration activities. “The process of exploration is hugely complex and high risk,” she elaborated adding; “eight out of ten exploration ventures fail commercially.”
The first step in exploration is seismic acquisition to collect data for an image of the subsurface. The data is processed and interpreted and more prospective locations are determined. “A single seismic survey can take two to five months to complete, and cost between N$300 million and N$900 million per survey,” she said.
Provided with positive seismic data the endeavour would proceed to deill to test for hydrocarbon presence, subject to extensive safety measures and contingency planning to ensure operational integrity. “A single well can take several months to drill,” she explained. Each well can cost between N$600 million and N$1,5 billion and drilling is the only wat to confirm the presence and type of petroleum, she said. After successful exploration wells and appraisal wells are drilled, a decision must be made to develop the field, which entails drills production wells.
Field development includes building offshore and onshore infrastructure, including sub-sea wellheads and manifolds and acquiring floating production, storage and offloading platforms. Total development costs start from N$80 billion and can climb to N$300 billion or more, including the construction of onshore processing facilities to make fuels, chemicals and generate power from the resource. Oil fields generally produce for twenty to forty years.
According to Venner the economic challenge of oil, particularly for deep water projects, comes from billion of dollars worth of negative cashflow for years, escalating during the development period which follows positive appraisal. Returns for investors must be reasonable and certain, she said. According to Venner, Namibia’s petroleum agreements entitel the government to the greater part of the take, between 55% and 65%, including Namcor’s manditory 10%. In exchange investors expect predictability and transparency from government policies, stability of fiscal terms and that the sanctity of contracts is upheld, she said.
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Shortly after the announcements of success at the Venus-1X and Graff-1 deepsea wells the Minister of Mines and Energy, Tom Alweendo said: “While waiting for the determination of the commerciality of the recourses, the discoveries have permeated us with an unprecedented exhilaration.”
However getting to this point has taken much dedication, perserverance and investment. Recently Briget Venner of ExxonMobil Exploration Namibia and vice chairperson of Namibia Petroleum Operators Association (NAMPOA) elaborated on that journey.
Oil exploration in the territory started way back in 1967 and by 1974 the huge Kudu Gas Field was discovered by Chevron, although the 1976 Vienna International Conference for the independence of Namibia led to voiding of all licenses and an end to exploration. In 1987 and 1988 Swakor drilled the Kudu 2 and Kudu3 wells which showed more of the dry sweet gas with little condensate found initially.
After Independence in 1989 there have been 12 wells drilled but until this year, none of them presented commercial oil discoveries. According to Venner this amounts to more that N$30 billion invested by foreign investors, ramping up to an expenditure of about N$4 billion in the last six years.
The significant increase in offshore exploration is illustrated by the number of licenses issued, which jumped from two, and one production license, issued in 2004, to 14 explorations by 2007, including onshore exploration not seen before, and by 2021 a total of 32 exploration licenses issued to 20 operators, as well as three reconnaisance licenses and one production license.
“Recent activity highlights the potential for commercial oil and gas developments,” she said naming the Kudu gas fiel, both Shell and Total discoveries which are in appraisal, and ReconAfrica’s onland exploration activities. “The process of exploration is hugely complex and high risk,” she elaborated adding; “eight out of ten exploration ventures fail commercially.”
The first step in exploration is seismic acquisition to collect data for an image of the subsurface. The data is processed and interpreted and more prospective locations are determined. “A single seismic survey can take two to five months to complete, and cost between N$300 million and N$900 million per survey,” she said.
Provided with positive seismic data the endeavour would proceed to deill to test for hydrocarbon presence, subject to extensive safety measures and contingency planning to ensure operational integrity. “A single well can take several months to drill,” she explained. Each well can cost between N$600 million and N$1,5 billion and drilling is the only wat to confirm the presence and type of petroleum, she said. After successful exploration wells and appraisal wells are drilled, a decision must be made to develop the field, which entails drills production wells.
Field development includes building offshore and onshore infrastructure, including sub-sea wellheads and manifolds and acquiring floating production, storage and offloading platforms. Total development costs start from N$80 billion and can climb to N$300 billion or more, including the construction of onshore processing facilities to make fuels, chemicals and generate power from the resource. Oil fields generally produce for twenty to forty years.
According to Venner the economic challenge of oil, particularly for deep water projects, comes from billion of dollars worth of negative cashflow for years, escalating during the development period which follows positive appraisal. Returns for investors must be reasonable and certain, she said. According to Venner, Namibia’s petroleum agreements entitel the government to the greater part of the take, between 55% and 65%, including Namcor’s manditory 10%. In exchange investors expect predictability and transparency from government policies, stability of fiscal terms and that the sanctity of contracts is upheld, she said.
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