Drought the new normal, Namibian scientists warn

Namibia faces the prospect of another below-normal rainfall season as a rare “super El Niño” builds, raising the risk of a very hot and dry summer.The World Meteorological Organisation has warned that the 2026-2027 El Niño is tracking as a rare “super” or “behemoth” El Niño event.Namibia’s revised climate change policy, dated 30 April, warns that severe droughts are becoming more frequent, with the interval between events reportedly shrinking from about 20 years historically to between three and five years.The policy also projects that water availability could decline by 10% to 20% by 2050 as climate change places pressure on the country’s already limited water resources.The warning comes as the Southern African Development Community’s regional climate outlook forecasts below-normal rainfall for Namibia from October to December, with similar conditions likely between January and March 2027. Above-average temperatures are also expected across much of the region.Half of Namibians at riskMeteorologist Vilho Ndeunyama told NBC last week that the El Niño, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, can disrupt rainfall patterns across southern Africa.He expects the developing phenomenon to strengthen towards the end of the year, increasing the risk of extreme heat and drought, although the timing and severity of its effects may vary.“El Niño is a main player, but it’s not the only player in our climate,” Ndeunyama explained, noting that other weather systems, including cut-off low-pressure systems, also influence Namibia’s weather.He said agriculture was particularly vulnerable to rainfall deficits and rising temperatures.The potential impact follows the 2024/25 El Niño-induced drought, during which approximately 1.4 million people – about half of all Namibians – faced acute food insecurity at the height of the crisis, according to a government-led review reported by the United Nations in August.The review called for stronger preparedness and earlier action to reduce the effects of future droughts.Ndeunyama urged the public to follow official weather forecasts and monitor changing conditions, saying preparedness would be important as the El Niño develops.“It’s better for us to prepare than wait for a crisis,” he said.phillipus@nmh-hub.com.na

Drought the new normal, Namibian scientists warn

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Namibian Sun 2026-10-27

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Drought the new normal, Namibian scientists warn

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Namibian Sun 2026-10-27

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