For the poor, inflation is more than 5%

For nursing student at Symanek Specialized College, Elvis Ketjivandje, inflation is not a percentage on a chart. It is the difference between eating three meals a day and eating once or twice.“It means the same amount of money doesn’t cover as much as it used to,” Ketjivandje said, explaining that rising food, transport and accommodation costs are forcing him to rethink even his most basic daily needs.“Sometimes I will also have to choose cheaper food options and change from eating three times a day to only twice a day or even once a day to limit my spending.”Ketjivandje normally gets N$3,500 a month to survive on, with N$1,500 going towards accommodation, N$1,300 on food and about N$900 on transport. This leaves little for other basic necessities, including data, printing, stationery and other study-related expenses.“I will have to even walk to campus just to save some money,” he said, warning that the decision could ultimately affect his studies.His experience comes as economists warn that Namibia’s headline inflation rate may be understating the pressure being felt by low-income households, whose spending is concentrated heavily on necessities such as food and transport.Namibia’s annual inflation accelerated to 5.0% in August, up from 4.4% in July, with transport costs among the biggest drivers following fuel price increases.Simonis Storm economist Almandro Jansen said his firm’s August inflation assessment had revised its full-year inflation forecast to between 4.3% and 4.6%, while its year-end forecast sits considerably higher at between 4.8% and 6.8%.But he warned that the national inflation figure does not necessarily reflect the inflation experienced by poorer households.“The published CPI is a weighted average built on the spending pattern of a typical, income-blind basket,” Jansen said.According to Jansen, food accounts for 16.5% of the national CPI basket, transport 14.3%, and housing, water and electricity 28.4%. But low-income households spend a significantly larger proportion of their income on food and transport.Using an illustrative low-income spending basket of 35% food, 18% transport, and 20% housing and utilities, Jansen calculated that August’s effective inflation rate would be closer to 5.5%, rather than the official 5.0%.However, he noted that this is an illustrative reweighting and not an official low-income inflation index.On an illustrative monthly income of about N$4,000, Jansen said the half-percentage-point gap amounts to roughly N$220 a month needed simply to maintain the same purchasing power.Jansen said the sharp rise in transport costs is particularly damaging because poorer households have fewer options to avoid it.Petrol at Walvis Bay rose to N$24.48 a litre from 5 August, compared with an estimated N$19.57 a year earlier. A 50-litre tank therefore costs roughly N$1,224, compared with about N$980 a year ago – an increase of nearly N$250 for the same amount of fuel, Jansen explained.“Multiply that across every taxi, minibus and delivery vehicle in the country and it explains why taxi and rail fares are both running above 15% year-on-year,” Jansen said.For working households, the pressure is already being felt.Millennial working adult Lichen Khoeses, 32, interviewed by Network Media Hub, said food and rent were consuming the biggest portions of her income, with transport and utilities taking much of what remained.“It feels like even with careful budgeting, the money is not enough to cover everything comfortably,” the mother of one said.“If food and municipal costs rise further, I would have to cut back even more on other household expenses and non-essential spending,” Khoeses said.‘No more room to cut’Economist Ida Williams of Cirrus Capital said the danger is greatest for households that have already exhausted their ability to cut spending.“Inflation is a serious threat to households,” Williams said.She pointed to Namibia’s financial inclusion data, saying half of eligible individuals earn N$2,000 a month or less, while the most common reason for borrowing is to buy food.For wealthier households, Williams said inflation could mean switching from premium brands to generic alternatives.“For low-income and poor households the change is far more drastic.”“Households that can only afford the cheapest options get priced out of them as inflation pushes those prices up, forcing them to cut back sharply or forgo the products or services altogether,” she said.The consequences, she warned, are already visible in everyday decisions, including children walking to school instead of taking taxis, families going without basic groceries, parents cancelling medical aid and households turning to expensive short-term loans.“When the groceries that income can buy keep shrinking but the number of mouths does not, hunger becomes inevitable,” Williams said.She believes many households are already in crisis, with inflation acting as a catalyst that deepens existing poverty and unemployment.“Being a student is not only about paying tuition. I still need transport, food, accommodation, data, printing and other things for my studies,” Ketjivandje said.desmarius@nma.com.na

For the poor, inflation is more than 5%

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Namibian Sun 2026-09-18

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For the poor, inflation is more than 5%

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Namibian Sun 2026-09-18

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