Economists: US's new 15% tariffs won’t hurt Namibia

Namibia’s export sector is unlikely to be significantly affected by the United States’ recently adjusted tariff rate of 15% on Namibian goods, trade experts and economists have said.This follows an executive order issued by US President Donald Trump titled “Further Modifying the Reciprocal Tariff Rates”, which saw tariffs on goods from several African countries - including Namibia - reduced to 15%.Namibia’s tariff was cut from 21% to 15%, while Angola’s dropped from 32%, Botswana’s from 37%, Zimbabwe’s from 18%, Lesotho’s from 50%, and Zambia’s from 17%. South Africa, however, remains excluded, with its tariff rate remaining at 30%.While the adjustments may appear favourable, experts say the impact on Namibia will be minimal, as the US is not a key trade partner. In fact, American markets account for less than 1% of Namibia’s total exports, with the country consistently running a trade deficit with the US.Diamond sector could feel the heatOne possible exception is the diamond industry, which could suffer further losses if US consumer demand softens.Economist Klaus Schade told Namibian Sun that while the reduced tariff is lower than before, it effectively ends the duty-free, quota-free access Namibia had under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) over the past 25 years.“The USA is one of the main markets for diamonds. Tariffs are applied based on country of origin, and a certificate of origin is required - not on the point of shipment. So rerouting South African products through Namibia would be pointless and more costly,” he said.Schade also dismissed fears of product dumping in Namibia, saying: “South Africa mainly exports cars and citrus fruits to the US - goods not produced in Namibia. However, South Africa may seek new markets or expand its reach elsewhere by offering more competitive prices. Much will depend on how US importers react. Will they reduce imports, absorb costs, or pass them on to consumers?”He added that the new tariff regime could dampen US consumer demand and contribute to global trade uncertainty, ultimately slowing economic activity worldwide.Acting CEO of the Namibia Trade Forum, Rodney !Hoaeb, echoed Schade’s sentiments. He said the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) does not anticipate significant trade diversion, although there is a possibility that some goods may undergo final processing outside of South Africa.“In Namibia’s case, products reclassified as Namibian under rules of origin could save 15% if shipped from here,” he said. However, he raised concerns about poultry: “Under the South Africa–US trade deal, poultry received preferential access into South Africa. With new tariffs in place, that surplus may now flood the Namibian market.”On the impact of the tariffs on Namibia’s green schemes, !Hoaeb explained that agricultural imports are tightly regulated by the Agro-Marketing and Trade Agency (Amta), which only grants concessions when local supplies are depleted.SACU revenue could take a hitEconomist Omu Kakujaha-Matundu warned of indirect consequences for Namibia through the SACU revenue-sharing formula. “If South Africa lowers tariffs on US goods - either unilaterally or through SACU channels - it could reduce the overall SACU revenue pool. This would mean smaller receipts for Namibia, impacting public spending,” he said.In such a scenario, government may be forced to borrow more or impose austerity measures, which could undermine efforts to tackle unemployment, he added.The tariff hikes have also drawn global attention, with CNN reporting that they are straining long-standing trade alliances.“Will Trump chicken out? We've seen it before,” said CNN economics reporter Anna Cooban. “He announces tariffs, then delays or retracts them. Investors have even coined a term: TACO - Trump Always Chickens Out.”Most of the new tariffs are expected to take effect on 7 August, leaving room for last-minute reversals.nikanor@nmh-hub.com.na

Economists: US's new 15% tariffs won’t hurt Namibia

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Namibian Sun 2025-08-04

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Economists: US's new 15% tariffs won’t hurt Namibia

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Namibian Sun 2025-08-04

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