Alert sounded for Southern Africa on El Niño drought

The El Niño-linked drought has caused widespread crop damage and wilting in southern African countries, with the 2024 harvests expected at below-average levels.This is according to a special alert issued by The Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS).The report warned that production prospects for the 2024 cereal crops across Southern Africa have taken a sharp downturn since the beginning of the year.Considering the harvest period is expected to commence this month, the likelihood of a recovery is negligible, the report added.“Cereal harvests, predominantly made up of maize, are therefore expected at below-average levels in2024, with several areas likely to experience extensive crop failures. Drought emergencies have already been declared by the governments of Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe.”Meanwhile, Namibia’s agriculture ministry has urged government to declare a drought emergency at the national level.In Namibia, provisional estimates indicate that there has been a decline of 53% in crop production from a harvest of 153 012 metric tonnes in the 2022–2023 season to 72 150 tonnes in the 2023–2024 season.Imports to increaseAccording to the GIEWS report, cereal imports are expected to increase significantly in the 2024–2025 marketing year in order to maintain stable consumption levels.“Concurrently, exportable supplies of white maize are forecast to decline in Southern Africa in 2024/2025.”Most years, white maize supplies from South Africa and Zambia have been more than sufficient to meet the import demand of neighbouring countries, the report noted.However, based on current supply and demand projections in South Africa for 2024/2025, white maize exports are expected to fall short to a level below the quantity imported by neighbouring Southern African countries in 2023/2024, it said.As a result, there is a high likelihood that imports needed to cover domestic consumption will have to be sourced from outside the sub-region.Running lowSouthern African countries may therefore need to transition to alternative grains to satisfy consumption needs.“Concerns primarily relate to the effects of a sharp decline in agricultural production on households’ food availability, considering the almost ubiquitous dependence on rain-fed agriculture and on food access, reflecting the confluence of income losses from reduced crop sales and expected supply-driven price hikes.”In Namibia, available stock in government silos is running low, at only 16% of the total holding capacity.The recently issued Crop Prospects, Food Security and Drought Situation report revealed that Namibia&#039;s national food reserves, including maize and pearl millet with a collective storage capacity of 22 900 tonnes, currently hold 3 758 tonnes.From May 2023 to February 2024, a total of 236 300 tonnes of coarse grains (wheat, maize and pearl millet) were imported into the country.The imports had covered the deficits of wheat and maize, resulting in surpluses of 66 800 tonnes and 48 400 tonnes, respectively.However, Namibia still faced a deficit of 58 000 tonnes of pearl millet, which is expected to be covered through additional commercial imports.

Alert sounded for Southern Africa on El Niño drought

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Namibian Sun 2025-11-05

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Alert sounded for Southern Africa on El Niño drought

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Namibian Sun 2025-11-05

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