Minerals mind shift could yield 26 000 jobs

A United Nations (UN) report estimates that Namibia could create about 26 000 jobs by expanding value addition in its critical minerals sector, positioning the country to benefit more substantially from a global energy transition.

The study argues that deeper participation in energy-transition value chains represents one of Namibia’s most immediate and realistic industrialisation opportunities.

Published by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the report finds that Namibia could unlock close to US$900 million (approximately N$17 billion) in additional economic activity if it moves beyond exporting raw or semi-processed minerals and develops targeted midstream and downstream industries.

UNCTAD identifies 353 products across 23 sectors that Namibia could feasibly produce using its existing capabilities.

Of these, 60 products fall directly within critical energy-transition mineral value chains, including those linked to renewable power systems, energy storage technologies and low-carbon industrial processes.

The report estimates that roughly US$811 million of the opportunity lies in export markets, while a further US$117 million could be captured through import substitution.

This would reduce Namibia’s reliance on imported industrial inputs and strengthen domestic supply chains.

Titled 'Rapid Assessment of the Value Addition and Diversification Within and Beyond the Critical Energy Transition Minerals Value Chain: Namibia', the study contends that the country’s long-standing dependence on exporting unprocessed minerals has constrained the broader developmental impact of its resource base.

Build gradual capacity

Despite being a significant producer of uranium, zinc and copper – minerals that are central to the global energy transition – Namibia currently captures only a small share of downstream value. Most processing and beneficiation activities take place outside the country.

UNCTAD’s assessment draws on economic complexity and product-space analysis to identify industries closely aligned with Namibia’s existing skills base, infrastructure and institutional experience.

Rather than advocating ambitious leaps into advanced manufacturing, the report prioritises “nearby” industries that could be developed through targeted policy support and incremental investment.

The most promising opportunities are concentrated in midstream processing and adjacent activities, rather than in capital-intensive end products such as electric vehicles or battery cell manufacturing.

These include mineral beneficiation, chemical processing, fabrication of industrial inputs, specialised engineering and maintenance services, logistics, recycling and construction linked to mining, energy and large-scale infrastructure projects.

UNCTAD argues that embedding Namibia more deeply into global supply chains as a supplier of intermediate goods and specialised services offers a more resilient path to industrialisation.

This approach would enable the country to capture steady demand while gradually building industrial capacity, without assuming the high financial and technological risks associated with full downstream manufacturing.

Early action is key

The report highlights Namibia’s structural advantages, including a relatively stable regulatory environment, decades of mining governance experience, expanding renewable energy capacity, and strategic access to regional and international markets through the Port of Walvis Bay.

According to UNCTAD, these factors position Namibia favourably compared with many resource-rich peers competing for roles in energy transition supply chains.

However, the assessment warns that fragmented policymaking across mining, industrialisation, trade, skills development and investment promotion could undermine otherwise viable opportunities.

Stronger alignment across these policy areas will be necessary to ensure that supplier development, infrastructure investment and skills training are sequenced with industrial expansion.

Delay risks

The report stresses that technical training, vocational education and industry-specific skills development must move ahead of, or at least in parallel with, value-addition initiatives. Without such coordination, Namibia risks reinforcing its role as a raw-materials exporter, even as global demand for critical minerals accelerates.

The assessment was launched in Windhoek in collaboration with the National Planning Commission and is expected to inform policy discussions on industrialisation, green hydrogen development and the implementation of the Sixth National Development Plan.

UNCTAD concludes that the global energy transition presents a narrowing window of opportunity.

Countries that move early to position themselves within value chains through targeted, capability-driven industrial strategies are more likely to secure lasting economic gains. Those that delay, the report cautions, may remain exposed to volatile commodity cycles with limited employment creation and industrial spill-overs.