Strong El Niño will impact food insecurity
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has issued an El Niño Alert with projected global food security impacts related to the ongoing climate phenomenon.
According to the report, the ongoing strong El Niño event, which is forecast to reach peak intensity in late 2023 and then dissipate by mid-2024, will have both negative and positive effects on acute food insecurity across the globe.
FEWS NET anticipates a total of 105 to 110 million people will need food assistance through at least early 2024, comprising a net increase in needs in Southern Africa and the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) regions.
Stronger
El Niño typically brings below-average rainfall to Southern Africa.
It said the impacts of poor rainfall and above-average temperatures on agricultural production, food prices, and water, sanitation, and hygiene are of great concern in drought-prone areas of Southern Africa.
The strength of El Niño has steadily increased since it emerged in May, becoming a strong event in late September.
According to the report in Southern Africa, a below-average October to March rainfall season is highly likely to lead to below-average cereal and cash crop harvests and exacerbate already-inflated maize prices.
“Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to spread, especially during the January to March peak of the 2023–2024 lean season and after the 2024 post-harvest period, which starts around August.”
Severe event
It said while agricultural production in 2024 is broadly expected to be below average, the severity of El Niño’s effects will depend on the magnitude of rainfall deficits and patterns of rainfall distribution, especially between December and February.
“The strength of this El Niño is expected to be comparable to the top six strongest events on the historical record, but relatively less severe than the two strongest events of 1997/1998, which brought historic drought and floods to East Africa, and 2015/2016, which brought historic drought to Southern Africa.
However, it said that given the presence of climate conditions similar to those in 1991/1992 and 2015/2016, there is a risk of a more severe scenario in which severe drought causes both crop failure and livestock deaths, leading to more severe levels of acute food insecurity than currently projected.
The report noted that the variable effects of El Niño on levels of acute food insecurity across these regions will require close monitoring throughout late 2023 and well into 2024.
Humanitarian response actors should prepare for not only a high likelihood of increasing food assistance needs in regions of concern but also the potential for more extreme scenarios mirroring the events of 1991/1992, 1997/1998, and 2015/2016.
“At this time, El Niño is not anticipated to cause large disruptions to the global grain supply, as the varying positive and negative impacts on different regions, along with other production dynamics, are expected to have a net stabilising effect.”
According to the report, the ongoing strong El Niño event, which is forecast to reach peak intensity in late 2023 and then dissipate by mid-2024, will have both negative and positive effects on acute food insecurity across the globe.
FEWS NET anticipates a total of 105 to 110 million people will need food assistance through at least early 2024, comprising a net increase in needs in Southern Africa and the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) regions.
Stronger
El Niño typically brings below-average rainfall to Southern Africa.
It said the impacts of poor rainfall and above-average temperatures on agricultural production, food prices, and water, sanitation, and hygiene are of great concern in drought-prone areas of Southern Africa.
The strength of El Niño has steadily increased since it emerged in May, becoming a strong event in late September.
According to the report in Southern Africa, a below-average October to March rainfall season is highly likely to lead to below-average cereal and cash crop harvests and exacerbate already-inflated maize prices.
“Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to spread, especially during the January to March peak of the 2023–2024 lean season and after the 2024 post-harvest period, which starts around August.”
Severe event
It said while agricultural production in 2024 is broadly expected to be below average, the severity of El Niño’s effects will depend on the magnitude of rainfall deficits and patterns of rainfall distribution, especially between December and February.
“The strength of this El Niño is expected to be comparable to the top six strongest events on the historical record, but relatively less severe than the two strongest events of 1997/1998, which brought historic drought and floods to East Africa, and 2015/2016, which brought historic drought to Southern Africa.
However, it said that given the presence of climate conditions similar to those in 1991/1992 and 2015/2016, there is a risk of a more severe scenario in which severe drought causes both crop failure and livestock deaths, leading to more severe levels of acute food insecurity than currently projected.
The report noted that the variable effects of El Niño on levels of acute food insecurity across these regions will require close monitoring throughout late 2023 and well into 2024.
Humanitarian response actors should prepare for not only a high likelihood of increasing food assistance needs in regions of concern but also the potential for more extreme scenarios mirroring the events of 1991/1992, 1997/1998, and 2015/2016.
“At this time, El Niño is not anticipated to cause large disruptions to the global grain supply, as the varying positive and negative impacts on different regions, along with other production dynamics, are expected to have a net stabilising effect.”
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