Rainy days are over, expert confirms
Not much further rain is expected for the rest of April, although it is possible for the southern parts of Namibia to receive light showers in the second week of May from a frontal system bringing cloudy and cooler conditions.
This according to agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg, who said the current La Niña phenomenon remains strong, especially for this time of the year.
La Niña/ El Niño usually weakens in the autumn to winter months, he added.
He said the probability for a full-scale La Niña to continue is above 50%, which is significantly better than the normal occurrence of about 20% to 30%.
“Neutral conditions have an about 35% probability to occur and El Niño less than 10% in the next months until mid-summer of 2022/2023.”
According to Van den Berg, there will be more certainty from about August about the progress of La Niña conditions.
Still possible
He added that with the current relative strong levels of La Niña and its indicators, rain is still possible before winter.
“Rain is still possible until at least the end of May over the Summer Rainfall Area, although short-term outlooks are currently less plausible. A dry spell is expected from about June to November, which is line with La Niña conditions.”
Van den Berg said average to above-average rainfall is again expected from about November.
This according to agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg, who said the current La Niña phenomenon remains strong, especially for this time of the year.
La Niña/ El Niño usually weakens in the autumn to winter months, he added.
He said the probability for a full-scale La Niña to continue is above 50%, which is significantly better than the normal occurrence of about 20% to 30%.
“Neutral conditions have an about 35% probability to occur and El Niño less than 10% in the next months until mid-summer of 2022/2023.”
According to Van den Berg, there will be more certainty from about August about the progress of La Niña conditions.
Still possible
He added that with the current relative strong levels of La Niña and its indicators, rain is still possible before winter.
“Rain is still possible until at least the end of May over the Summer Rainfall Area, although short-term outlooks are currently less plausible. A dry spell is expected from about June to November, which is line with La Niña conditions.”
Van den Berg said average to above-average rainfall is again expected from about November.
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