Cold snaps expected until August
La Niña weakening
Temperatures are expected to become milder in July, but short spells of very cold weather will persist for another two months.
Not much further rain is expected for winter and spring, but average to above-average rainfall is possible from about November in Namibia. Temperatures will become milder in July, but cold snaps are still possible until August.
According to agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg, La Niña conditions are continuing, although they are currently showing a weakening trend.
“Surface temperatures of all Niño areas eased and are heading towards the neutral phase within the next month or two. A weak revival is expected from about the end of August until December.
“Current outlooks are favouring a more permanent weaking phase to start from about January 2023 to indicate the end of the current three-year-run of La Niña conditions,” he said.
According to him, it will only be the third time since 1950 that there is a three-year-spell of consecutive La Niña conditions: 1973 to 1976, 1998 to 2001 and 2020 to 2023. There was also a spell close to three years long from 1954 to the end of 1956.
La Niña results in wetter-than-normal conditions in southern Africa from December to February, and drier-than-normal conditions over equatorial east Africa over the same period.
Van den Berg said longer-term trends are indicating that the 2023/2024 season will most likely predominantly be neutral with the start of a spell of El Niño or neutral conditions from about 2024/2025 until about 2027/2028, or even longer.
According to agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg, La Niña conditions are continuing, although they are currently showing a weakening trend.
“Surface temperatures of all Niño areas eased and are heading towards the neutral phase within the next month or two. A weak revival is expected from about the end of August until December.
“Current outlooks are favouring a more permanent weaking phase to start from about January 2023 to indicate the end of the current three-year-run of La Niña conditions,” he said.
According to him, it will only be the third time since 1950 that there is a three-year-spell of consecutive La Niña conditions: 1973 to 1976, 1998 to 2001 and 2020 to 2023. There was also a spell close to three years long from 1954 to the end of 1956.
La Niña results in wetter-than-normal conditions in southern Africa from December to February, and drier-than-normal conditions over equatorial east Africa over the same period.
Van den Berg said longer-term trends are indicating that the 2023/2024 season will most likely predominantly be neutral with the start of a spell of El Niño or neutral conditions from about 2024/2025 until about 2027/2028, or even longer.
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