Trump's life under probe
Beyond the 'witch hunt,' Trump is dogged by a multitude of investigations bound to distract him and grow when Democrats take the House.
17 December 2018 | International
Less than two years into Trump's presidency, his business associates, political advisers and family members are being probed, along with the practices of his late father.
On Saturday, Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke became the fourth Cabinet member to leave under an ethical cloud, having sparked 17 investigations into his actions on the job, by one watchdog's count.
All of this with the first special counsel investigation against a president in 20 years hanging over Trump's head, spinning out charges and strong-arming guilty pleas from underlings while keeping in suspense whether the president - “Individual 1” in prosecutor Robert Mueller's coded legalese - will end up accused of criminal behaviour himself.
The scope of the scrutiny has shaped Trump's presidency, proving a steady distraction from his governing agenda.
So far, much of it has been launched by federal prosecutors and government watchdogs that eschew partisanship. The intensity is certain to increase next year when Democrats assume control of the House and the subpoena power that comes with it.
Although Trump dismisses the investigations as politically motivated “witch hunts,” his high-octane Twitter account frequently betrays just how consumed he is by the scrutiny. He's also said to watch hours of television coverage on milestone days in the investigations.
“It saps your energy, diverts your attention and you simply can't lead because your opponents are up in arms against you,” Cal Jillson, a Southern Methodist University political scientist and historian, said of the scrutiny. “It weakens your friends and emboldens your enemies.”
Almost midway through his term, Trump is struggling to deliver on his central campaign promises. He may end the year without a Republican-led Congress giving him the US$5 billion he wants for a border wall. And he's previewed few legislative priorities for 2019.
Even if he had, it's unlikely the new Democratic House majority would have much incentive to help a president weakened by investigations rack up wins as his own re-election campaign approaches.
Perhaps not since Bill Clinton felt hounded by a “vast wing conspiracy,” as Hillary Clinton put it, has a president been under such duress from investigation.
This jeopardy has come with Trump's party in control of Congress and the Justice Department driving at least three separate criminal investigations. They are the Mueller probe looking into possible collusion, obstruction of justice or other wrongdoing in contacts between the Trump campaign and Russia; the New York campaign-finance case involving hush money paid to Trump's alleged lovers; and now a case from New York, first reported by The Wall Street Journal this past week, examining the finances and operations of Trump's inaugural committee and whether foreign interests made illegal payments to it.
Behind those matters is a battery of lawsuits or inquiries from state attorneys general and other parties tied mainly to Trump businesses.
At best, the investigations are overshadowing what has been positive economic news. At worst, the probes are a threat to the presidency, Trump's family and his business interests.
The deep diving will only grow in the new year when Democrats take over the House. They are expected to launch their own investigations and could pursue impeachment, though party leaders caution they could face a political backlash by taking that step.
Even if Trump avoids impeachment, the Democratic investigations will create headaches. Administration officials will be called to testify before Congress and lawmakers will seek a trove of documents, probably including Trump's tax returns, which he has refused to make public.
A bare-bones White House staff may struggle to keep up. A tally by the Brookings Institution finds more than 60 percent of Trump's top aides have left in the first two years, a turnover rate exceeding the previous five presidents. In addition, 10 Cabinet secretaries have departed, more than Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Clinton lost in two years. The shake-ups now have left Mick Mulvaney, Trump's budget chief, doing double duty indefinitely as the president's chief of staff.
That combination makes it hard to imagine a president effectively engaged in policy, even if - as in the case of Clinton - the drawn-out investigations lead to an impeachment that fails to remove the president.
“The modern presidency is extraordinarily complex and demanding so you need the president's full attention,” Jillson says. “Where your attention should be, you're also thinking about meeting with your lawyers.”