Little hope of rain before December
Unfavourable climatic conditions have severely dampened chances for rain for the remainder of October and November.
“Prospects for rain are not favourable for the next weeks although some rain may occur in the second week of November in the north-eastern parts of Namibia,” Santam climatologist Johan van den Berg writes in his latest climate outlook report.
He adds that conditions are likely to improve in the second part of the season. The report states that climatic conditions in the Indian Ocean, with cooler water around north-western Australia and warmer water towards the central and southern African coastline, are bad news in terms of rain prospects for the southern African sub-continent. This is due to moisture outflow from central Africa towards the Indian Ocean and not towards the south. Furthermore, these conditions are mainly responsible for the high-pressure system dominating Southern Africa at the moment.
Van den Berg says forecasts indicate that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is currently in a very strong phase, will return to neutral conditions from about mid-December, which is likely good news for the second part of the rainy season.
“Conditions for rain might improve after November when the Indian Ocean conditions will become less prominent and the effect of neutral ENSO conditions can come into play,” he writes. The Santam climate report notes that hot and very dry conditions continue in most of the summer-rainfall area, and drought conditions are increasing.
“Availability of food for animals is becoming increasingly scarce and the drought disaster areas are expanding daily.”
He warns further that another serious consequence of the current conditions is that they affect the planting time for summer crops.
Earlier this month Simon Dirkse of the Namibia Meteorological Service (NMS) released a seasonal rainfall outlook stating that Namibia is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall in October, November and December.
The report said most parts of Namibia are likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall during January, February and March, with the exception of Zambezi Region where normal to above-normal rainfall is expected.
JANA-MARI SMITH
“Prospects for rain are not favourable for the next weeks although some rain may occur in the second week of November in the north-eastern parts of Namibia,” Santam climatologist Johan van den Berg writes in his latest climate outlook report.
He adds that conditions are likely to improve in the second part of the season. The report states that climatic conditions in the Indian Ocean, with cooler water around north-western Australia and warmer water towards the central and southern African coastline, are bad news in terms of rain prospects for the southern African sub-continent. This is due to moisture outflow from central Africa towards the Indian Ocean and not towards the south. Furthermore, these conditions are mainly responsible for the high-pressure system dominating Southern Africa at the moment.
Van den Berg says forecasts indicate that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is currently in a very strong phase, will return to neutral conditions from about mid-December, which is likely good news for the second part of the rainy season.
“Conditions for rain might improve after November when the Indian Ocean conditions will become less prominent and the effect of neutral ENSO conditions can come into play,” he writes. The Santam climate report notes that hot and very dry conditions continue in most of the summer-rainfall area, and drought conditions are increasing.
“Availability of food for animals is becoming increasingly scarce and the drought disaster areas are expanding daily.”
He warns further that another serious consequence of the current conditions is that they affect the planting time for summer crops.
Earlier this month Simon Dirkse of the Namibia Meteorological Service (NMS) released a seasonal rainfall outlook stating that Namibia is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall in October, November and December.
The report said most parts of Namibia are likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall during January, February and March, with the exception of Zambezi Region where normal to above-normal rainfall is expected.
JANA-MARI SMITH
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