Late summer rains on the cards
A weather expert has warned that the prospects for rain in the first half of summer look bleak but are expected to improve later in the season.
In his latest weather outlook, climatologist Johan van den Berg of Santam South Africa says it is likely that very little rain will occur for the next few months, with a possible late start of the rainy season.
“Significant rain is not expected before the middle of November for the central to northern parts of Namibia and even later for the southern parts,” he says.
Van den Berg notes that the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could have a negative effect on the probability of rain in spring and early summer.
Overall, however, Van den Berg forecasts that neutral conditions of the El Niño Southern Oscillation are more likely to occur for most of the summer season.
“This can have positive effects for the summer rainfall area for mid- to late summer rainfall.”
The Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to become more neutral by mid-summer, which could mean improved rainfall conditions. His brief states that intense drought conditions persist in large parts of southern Africa, including Namibia. Van den Berg states that all Niño regions now indicate non-El Niño trends. Most of the forecasts for 2019/20 remain positive that neutral conditions will replace the El Niño conditions.
Meanwhile, Namibia's dam levels remain worrying.
The level of the three-dam system supplying Windhoek with water has dropped to 14.9%.The dams supplying Gobabis are only 1.2% full, compared to 5.2% last season.
In the south, the Hardap Dam stands at 14.7%, compared to last season's 38%.
JANA-MARI SMITH
In his latest weather outlook, climatologist Johan van den Berg of Santam South Africa says it is likely that very little rain will occur for the next few months, with a possible late start of the rainy season.
“Significant rain is not expected before the middle of November for the central to northern parts of Namibia and even later for the southern parts,” he says.
Van den Berg notes that the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could have a negative effect on the probability of rain in spring and early summer.
Overall, however, Van den Berg forecasts that neutral conditions of the El Niño Southern Oscillation are more likely to occur for most of the summer season.
“This can have positive effects for the summer rainfall area for mid- to late summer rainfall.”
The Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to become more neutral by mid-summer, which could mean improved rainfall conditions. His brief states that intense drought conditions persist in large parts of southern Africa, including Namibia. Van den Berg states that all Niño regions now indicate non-El Niño trends. Most of the forecasts for 2019/20 remain positive that neutral conditions will replace the El Niño conditions.
Meanwhile, Namibia's dam levels remain worrying.
The level of the three-dam system supplying Windhoek with water has dropped to 14.9%.The dams supplying Gobabis are only 1.2% full, compared to 5.2% last season.
In the south, the Hardap Dam stands at 14.7%, compared to last season's 38%.
JANA-MARI SMITH
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